10 Fantasy Football Bust Candidates for 2018
Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Average Draft Position: 7.01, RB32, 74th Overall
Make no mistake: Marlon Mack doesn't necessarily cost you a lot in fantasy football, and he's the cheapest of the 10 candidates detailed in this article. But an early-seventh- or late-sixth-round pick is still prime territory in your drafts.
Mack and all of the backs being taken around this point in the draft are not great bets. Running backs with ADPs outside the top 30 are often letdowns in terms of their weekly hit rates.
Why? Well, running backs around this point in the draft are mired in ambiguity or part of committees: Tarik Cohen (6.10), Kerryon Johnson (6.10), Mack, Rex Burkhead (7.05), Marshawn Lynch (7.05, though he could just be undervalued), Chris Thompson (7.12), Carlos Hyde (8.01) and Jamaal Williams (8.01).
But the point remains: we're taking stabs at this point. We can think that Kerryon Johnson runs away with the Detroit Lions' backfield, but we don't know it. The same applies to Mack with the Indianapolis Colts' backfield.
Mack played 14 games as a rookie last season and hit double-digit carries just twice: 11 in Week 8 and 10 in Week 1. He had only two other games with more than seven carries. As far as yardage goes, he topped 30 rushing yards just twice: 46 on 6 carries in Week 13 and 91 on 9 carries in Week 5.
In his two double-digit touch games, he produced 24 yards and 27 yards, respectively, against the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. Those teams ranked 29th (Rams) and 23rd (Bengals) against the run by our metrics in 2017.
There's a hope that Mack can thrive if given extended run, but he was outperformed by Frank Gore in 2017. Gore maintained a Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry of -0.05 when excluding fumbles. Mack's rate was -0.07. In terms of Rushing Success Rate, Gore bested Mack 36.78% to 33.33%.
Yes, Mack has shown flashes...
It appears Marlon Mack is good pic.twitter.com/f6T6afJtoZ
— Billy Marshall (@BillyM_91) October 17, 2017
If Mack slips in the draft, he could wind up being a value, but as it stands now, he's overvalued in what should be a full committee in Indianapolis.