Which NFL Head Coach Will Be the First to Get Fired?

Vance Joseph, Denver Broncos

First Coach Fired Odds: 7/1

Vance Joseph was seen by some as a surprising hire by John Elway and the Denver Broncos prior to the 2017 season. He had just a single season of coordinator experience behind him, and in that season, his Miami Dolphins defense allowed the fourth-most yards in the NFL. That being said, they were 18th in per-play efficiency, according to our metrics, but Joseph still seemed like a bold hire.

His first season with the Broncos would appear to be something approaching a disaster, especially on defense. Eight of the Broncos 11 losses came by more than 10 points, with four by more than 20. They had 50 points hung on them by the Philadelphia Eagles in a Week 9 loss. However, the defense was actually among the top units in the NFL, according to our numbers. They were the best D when it came to stopping the run, allowing -0.13 Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play.

As has been the case in recent years, Denver's defense was let down by the unit on the other side of the ball as the Broncos had the second-worst offense by our numbers. It's almost as if a quarterback room staffed with Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch and Brock Osweiler isn't good enough to get the job done in the modern NFL.

The Broncos are generally quite patient with their head coaches, with only Josh McDaniels and Wade Phillips being given two seasons or fewer at the helm in team history. (Gary Kubiak had two seasons as head coach but retired due to health concerns.) Joseph will be hoping that he has a more stable option at quarterback in Case Keenum, but the skipper should be considered an early candidate to lose his job given the Broncos still believing that they are in a Super Bowl window that the bookies don't see them in.