Which NFL Head Coach Will Be the First to Get Fired?

If you're betting on which coach will be the first to get fired, who should you gamble on?

The first Monday after the end of the NFL regular season is known as "Black Monday" because of all the pink slips that are handed out to NFL coaches.

But teams haven't been afraid to wave goodbye to coaches during the season, either. In fact, 2017 was something of a quiet year with regards to in-season changes. Ben McAdoo of the New York Giants was the only head coach to be fired during the campaign in 2017, after three coaches (Gus Bradley, Rex Ryan and Jeff Fisher) were gone before Black Monday in 2016.

With this in mind, let's take a look at some of the leading candidates to be the first coach to lose their job in 2018, with odds courtesy of The first three we'll talk about are the three favorites, according to oddsmakers, while the last two are intriguing long shots who make for intriguing bets.

In this piece, we'll make reference to our in-house Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which tracks the efficiency of both teams and players, with the team side being adjusted for strength of opponent. A three-yard reception on 3rd-and-2 is wildly different than a three-yard reception on 3rd-and-4, and NEP helps account for that by tracking the expected points players add to the team total over the course of a season.

You can learn more about NEP in our glossary.