Which Quarterbacks Threw Deep Least Often in 2017?
4. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Deep Rate: 15.92% | Passing NEP per Attempt: 0.55 | Success Rate: 42.31%
With left tackle Tyron Smith missing significant time this year due to injury, Dak Prescott could turn to the offensive line excuse, as well. The dude got terrorized in the games that Smith couldn't play. But that doesn't fully explain Prescott's numbers when we include what he did last year, as well.
| Throws 16+ Yards Downfield | In 2016 | In 2017 |
|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 15.47% | 15.92% |
| League Average | 17.79% | 18.67% |
In both seasons, Prescott's deep rate was well below the league average. He didn't have issues with the offensive line in 2016. So, what gives?
Part of it could come down to personnel. Dez Bryant was injured for much of 2016 and struggled to get separation in 2017. Terrance Williams had below-average long-ball numbers and was the only other player to get more than 10 deep targets this past season. This could provide at least a partial explanation.
But even that narrative comes up short. Despite the potential lack of talent at wideout, Prescott still managed to hold above-average efficiency numbers on deep balls in both seasons. The league-average Passing NEP per attempt on deep balls was 0.42 this year with a 39.58% Success Rate.
| Prescott on Deep Balls | Passing NEP per Attempt | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| In 2017 | 0.55 | 42.31% |
| In 2016 | 0.79 | 49.30% |
This could be a result of Prescott not utilizing that area of the field often (or the presence of Ezekiel Elliott), but the end result is still that he wasn't bad when he went deep. But it didn't make any difference.
What does this mean for 2018? It likely means that the Dallas Cowboys should look into upgrading their pass-catching corps through free agency and the draft. They could re-sign Brice Butler -- a guy who had more receiving yards and more touchdowns on deep throws than Bryant despite having 25 fewer targets -- but they refused to put him on the field during his time with the team. That seems like an unlikely solution.
On top of that, the Cowboys' coaching staff should encourage Prescott to test defenses more often. If he can continue to do so with above-average effectiveness, it could help elevate the offense to new levels. With Smith likely healthy entering 2018, this should be within the gameplan regardless of any changes made at wide receiver.
