Which Quarterbacks Threw Deep Least Often in 2017?
3. Josh McCown, New York Jets
Deep Rate: 15.11% | Passing NEP per Attempt: 1.12 | Success Rate: 55.00%
A big part of the discussion around Prescott was questioning why he didn't go deep more often despite decent efficiency. But he isn't the biggest member of that class from 2017. That honor belongs to Josh McCown, who led the damn league in deep-ball efficiency.
There were 30 quarterbacks who had at least 50 deep-ball attempts this year. McCown's 1.12 Passing NEP per attempt was the best of the group, and his 55.00% Success Rate was second behind Drew Brees. But he still had the third-lowest deep rate in the league. Again, his efficiency could have been a product of this not being a prominent part of their offense, but it still leaves plenty of questions.
Interestingly, we can't just chalk this up to McCown being a conservative passer. He threw deep 20.61% of the time with the Cleveland Browns in 2016, so it's not as if he's unwilling to attack. Whether it was scheme-driven or something else, this aggressiveness disappeared in New York.
Looking forward to 2018, McCown isn't likely to be the Jets' starting quarterback. They should address the position either through free agency or the draft. And -- if Robby Anderson can clean up his act off the field -- that new passer could be set up for success.
Let's compare what McCown did in 2016 versus 2017 from an efficiency standpoint. The only change for McCown is that he aged a year and acquired a new group of skill-position players. But his numbers were wildly different.
| McCown on Deep Balls | Passing NEP per Attempt | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| In 2017 | 1.12 | 55.00% |
| In 2016 | 0.24 | 35.29% |
These are both small samples for McCown -- 60 deep balls in 2017 and 34 the year before -- but the results are miles apart. This likely indicates that the surrounding talent with the Jets was superior, meaning the successor has some toys to play with.
The Jets have a lot of holes, and they are not as poised to succeed as other potentially quarterback-needy teams like the Minnesota Vikings. But it's not a bare cupboard. McCown proved this year that there are worse places to play, and success is not as far-fetched as it may seem.
