FanDuel Tournament Pivots for Wild Card Weekend

Quarterback

Chalk

Quarterback is a bit of a hodgepodge this week. If regular season output means anything to players, then we should expect both Alex Smith and Cam Newton to see some of the highest ownership this week. Smith had the best season of his career by far, topping 4,000 yards for the first time and setting career highs in touchdown passes and passer rating. His acumen on deep throws was especially evident. All of this propelled him to the QB4 spot for the season. He gets a Titans defense this week that ranks 21st against the pass by our metrics, and he comes at a discount from the top names.

Cam set a career high in rushing yards this season, which is a massive benefit in fantasy. His 47 yards per game on the ground give him a solid floor before he even thinks about using his arm. He's scored at least 20.42 FanDuel points in his last four away games against the New Orleans Saints. Expect him to be pumped and raring to go.

Pivot

Blake Bortles, $7,600 (vs Buffalo Bills)

Blake Bortles gets no respect. The FanDuel QB12 on the season finally topped a 60% completion rate for the first time in his four-year career (60.2%, he'll have you know). Where is the celebration? Where are the streamers and fireworks? Nah, no respect.

He doesn't get respect from pricing algorithms, either. From Weeks 12 through 16, Bortles scored no fewer than 18.52 points, and he scored at least 23.6 in all of the others. Despite this, his price moved from $7,100 to just $7,600. Not once did he cross the $8,000 salary threshold, a trend that continues into wild card weekend. At only $7,600, Bortles is priced fifth out of eight starting quarterbacks this week.

People will decide not to use him for a number of reasons, beyond the usual anti-Bortles bias. People often like to get a psychological boost from seeing their players play, so the fact that the Jacksonville Jaguars play on Sunday will likely be a hit to his ownership. So, too, will the fact that Jackvonville are 8.5-point favorites, which implies a more run-heavy game flow. Lastly, the Buffalo Bills' pass defense from a season-long perspective looks somewhat daunting to opposing passers, as they finished seventh against the position in terms of FanDuel points per game.

However, these are all ridiculous notions. Yes, the Jags are big favorites, but it's not like Bortles needs 300 yards and two-plus scores at his price to hit value. Heck, 180 yards and two scores gets you to two-times value, and that doesn't even include the 20 rushing yards that Bortles averages every week. Buffalo isn't as good as they seem, either, and their home/road splits are atrocious. The Bills give up only 12.4 FanDuel points per game at home, a number that jumps dramatically to 15.64 on the road. Opposing home quarterbacks have not scored fewer than 14.46 FanDuel points against the Bills in a game since Week 4.

Bortles will continue to be overlooked, which makes him a perfect pivot play on a week with limited games.