Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 6

Avoid Matthew Stafford as an Underdog

The Detroit Lions geaux south to take on the New Orleans Saints. The total in the game is 50 points, the highest of all games this weekend. Usually, we want to target quarterbacks in those scenarios, but Matthew Stafford's stats tell us this may be a stay-away.

The Saints are 4.5-point favorites. Stafford has done worse over his career as an underdog, averaging 19.28 fantasy points per game compared to his average of 24.68 as a favorite. But what if we ignore the fact that the Lions are underdogs and just pay attention to that voluptuous total of 50 points?

In a games where the total has been 50 points or higher, Stafford has averaged 21.81 fantasy points per game. That's better than his average as an underdog. However, his average in games with a total below 50 is 22.01 fantasy points per game. He has been relatively unaffected by high or low totals.

Another factor going against Stafford is his price of $8,500 on FanDuel. He is priced fourth among quarterbacks and becomes a somewhat dangerous option to start because he is unlikely to return top-five value. Stafford is not a safe cash-game play.