Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 6

Avoid the Texans' Defense Because of Line Movement

The Houston D/ST will be a popular play this weekend since they are favored by 10 points versus Kevin Hogan and the Cleveland Browns. While they have a chance to do well, they are priced at $5,400 on FanDuel, tied for the highest of all defenses. My biggest concern with picking Houston is the rising total in this game.

Hogan was named the starter earlier this week and the total just keeps rising. The game opened with a total set at just 44 points but it has since risen to 47. This line movement becomes a bit worrisome.

What is line movement? Well, during the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible to begin taking bets. For Week 6, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. They are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

Last year, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total was between 46 and 49 points in 2015, the defenses involved averaged just 6.61 fantasy points per game.

In the games that rose two or more points during the week, those defenses averaged just 6.28 fantasy points per game.

Sure, this total may be rising because Houston seemingly has an elite offense with the emergence of Deshaun Watson and the return to greatness from DeAndre Hopkins, but the Texans only moved from 9.5-point favorites to 10-point favorites. If oddsmakers were raising the total just because of Houston's offense, the spread would have increased more than half of a point.

Targeting the Browns is usually a foolproof plan when picking a defense, but the line movement has scared me off of this game. If you are willing to pay top dollar, spend it on the next defense we're about to discuss.