Fantasy Football Week 5 Market Share Report: Aaron Jones Takes Advantage

Rushing Market Shares

1. Aaron Jones Makes a Case for More Carries

It's way too early to say that Ty Montgomery got Wally Pipp'd by Aaron Jones. But Jones is certainly giving the Green Bay Packers some options at running back.

Jones had Montgomery-esque usage in Week 5, tallying 19 of 21 running-back carries and playing a whopping 53 of 60 snaps. He made it all count, too, rushing for 125 yards and a touchdown, adding one target and nine receiving yards. Sure, the opposing Dallas Cowboys were missing linebacker Sean Lee, but that's disgusting production.

On the season, 46.88% of Jones' 32 carries have increased the Packers' expected points for the drive, per numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, also known as his Success Rate. Montgomery's Success Rate is just 34.78%. That's partially due to the teams Montgomery has faced, but this has to grab your attention.

There are two separate takeaways here. First, we know Jones is going to be the bell-cow in the offense for as long as Montgomery is out. Jamaal Williams practiced in full last week, so his lack of involvement wasn't due to injury. The team just wanted to use Jones, and they did so often.

Second, it likely means Montgomery will have a smaller role when he comes back. It seems to be a given that Montgomery will still handle the work in the passing game, but Jones could absolutely give him a breather in early-down work, possibly doing much more than that.

It's not time to abandon ship on Montgomery yet. They were playing him on almost every snap before his injury for a reason. But it definitely does lower his rest-of-season outlook. Jones is worthy of investment even in bad matchups until Montgomery comes back, and we'll have to watch this backfield closely once both players are healthy.

2. Jerick McKinnon Flashes His Talent

The Minnesota Vikings seemed to go with the hot-hand approach at running back in their first game without Dalvin Cook. That can often lead to frustrating usage, but when one of those guys can run like the wind, the situation changes a bit.

We've known his entire career that Jerick McKinnon is a physical specimen. He may just finally be getting the chance to display it.

McKinnon outcarried Latavius Murray, 16-12, and outsnapped him, 47-22. When you add in the receiving-down work that McKinnon will see (he had six targets Monday night), that's a pretty meaty role.

There's a lot to like about McKinnon, both due to the offense in which he plays and his skills. We know he'll have a floor due to his role in the passing game, and he has the potential to carve out more early-down work, too. That's a pretty juicy combo.

That said, we do need to show some restraint with McKinnon. Murray still figures to be the primary back near the end zone, lowering McKinnon's touchdown potential. On top of that, if Murray catches fire, the team could easily swing work back to him. For now, it's great to plug McKinnon in and bank on his talent, but be aware that there are still factors in place to limit his upside.

3. The Giants Are a Full-Blown Committee

When you can invest in unproven rushers on a bad offense behind a wretched offensive line, you gotta do it. When those rushers are in a full-blown committee, things are even more glorious. You're going to want to stay away from the New York Giants' backfield.

Things weren't too bad for them on Sunday with both Orleans Darkwa and Wayne Gallman topping 70 yards from scrimmage. Gallman had 16 total opportunities, and Darkwa had 12, and you can be viable based on that type of usage. Those surface-level numbers are a bit misleading, though.

Neither of those guys -- nor Shane Vereen -- played more than 40% of the snaps. Darkwa had 6 carries for 58 yards and a touchdown in the first quarter and got just two totes the rest of the game. Even when the production is there, nobody can pull away from the pack.

To make things even worse, this offense just lost its best player.

We want to attach our running backs to high-powered offenses. Without Odell Beckham in the mix, we have no reason to believe the Giants will be anything close to that.

If this were a high-scoring team, we could accept the frustartions associated with a committee. That's not going to be the case. These are all players to avoid in DFS, and if you're starting them in season-long leagues, you are begging for disappointment if your guy doesn't get off to a hot start.

4. Lamar Miller Pulls Away From D'Onta Foreman

Earlier this year, it looked like the Houston Texans were trending the same direction as the Giants. Lamar Miller was losing carries to D'Onta Foreman, and after a rough 2016 for Miller, it was easy to understand why that was happening.

Week 5 was a bit different, though. Foreman lost a fumble, and it seems like it tilted the scales back in Miller's favor. Here's a look at Miller's weekly usage this year with his carry market share being the percentage of the team's running-back carries he got in that specific game.

The dip in Week 4 was partially related to a lopsided score in the Texans' favor, but Miller was the clear lead back in Week 5. With how well the offense has played the past three games, that role is steadily increasing in value.

What makes it even better is that Miller got the looks in close, as well. The team ran the ball four times in the red zone Sunday night, three of which were carries for Miller and the other being an end-around for Will Fuller. Two of those carries were inside the 10. Foreman was non-existent in close, further bolstering Miller's value.

With Miller's role stabilizing and the offense cooking, his value is shooting up. He's just $6,800 on FanDuel entering a matchup with the Cleveland Browns, so Miller's a fun asset for DFS in Week 6. He could also be a player to buy in season-long leagues before the potential big scores start to come.