Fantasy Football Week 5 Market Share Report: Aaron Jones Takes Advantage
Receiving Market Shares
1. Zach Ertz's Floor Remains Immense
It's not often you'll see the words "immense" and "floor" in the same discussion when it comes to tight ends. Zach Ertz is just a gosh-darn unicorn.
Ertz led the Philadelphia Eagles with 12 targets in Week 5, his fourth time in five games either leading the team in targets or being tied for that spot. He has at least eight targets each time, and his overall market share is 27.59%. That is a seductive number.
Travis Kelce is the only other tight end with a market share above 22%, and he's at 24.03%. The gap between Ertz and the pack is huge, and that's despite facing teams in the Kansas City Chiefs and Arizona Cardinals that typically suffocate opposing tight ends. Ertz is certifiably matchup-proof.
To make things even better, six of these targets for Ertz have come in the red zone, accounting for 26.09% of the team's looks there. He didn't get his sixth red-zone target until Week 13 of last year. Ertz's floor makes him arguably the best cash-game tight end in the league, and those red-zone chances give him a pretty sweet ceiling, as well.
2. T.Y. Hilton Rises Even Without Andrew Luck
With Andrew Luck still out for the Indianapolis Colts, it's hard to ever have a ton of trust in any of the team's pass catchers. But T.Y. Hilton is at least changing that discussion a bit.
In the four games that Jacoby Brissett has started, Hilton has gone over 150 yards through the air twice. Granted, those were two of the best matchups imaginable for a wide receiver, but 150 yards ain't no joke.
Despite having tangoes with elite cornerbacks Trumaine Johnson, Patrick Peterson, and Richard Sherman, Hilton enters Week 6 with 26.43% of the team's targets, 37.04% of their targets 16 or more yards downfield, and 38.46% of the red-zone targets. He is basking in opportunity, and he's turning that into some monster yardage in the right matchups.
The Colts just got their center, Ryan Kelly, back from injury in Week 5, Brissett has been at least competent when not facing top-tier defenses, and Luck insists he'll play this year. That could be enough to justify buying Hilton prior to his Week 6 Monday night matchup with the Tennessee Titans.
3. The Packers Are Spreading Things Out
Because Aaron Rodgers is so freaking good, the Packers' offense has generally been able to support two fantasy-relevant wide receivers each year. Three, though, may be a bit of a tall ask, and 2017 is proving exactly that.
Just take a quick peek at the season-long market shares for Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, and Randall Cobb for the games in which they have played at least 50% of the snaps. Games where they failed to reach that mark were omitted from the calculation.
| In 2017 | Target Market Share |
|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 20.14% |
| Davante Adams | 20.74% |
| Randall Cobb | 21.23% |
Even when you account for the injuries, nobody is able to rise above a 21.23% target market share. That's worrisome no matter how spicy the offense may be.
As Adams showed in Week 5, players can still have huge games without massive season-long market shares. It's just going to make it hard to predict who will be "the guy" in a given week, creating a bit of a headache for fantasy.
That said, Adams may be the guy best positioned to have those big games. He has 30.00% of the team's targets 16-plus yards downfield and 31.03% of the red-zone targets. He's probably the best target for DFS in the short term, and Nelson and Cobb may be players to avoid until their roles increase.
