Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 4

Start Tyrod Taylor When the Bills are Expected to Lose

Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills are 8.0-point underdogs on the road versus the Atlanta Falcons. Usually, you want to target a quarterback who is likely to win. However, Taylor has been the exception to the rule.

Over the summer, I explored how quarterbacks performed in wins versus losses. Of the 32 projected starters heading into the 2017 season, Taylor averaged the highest fantasy points per game in losses. His average output in defeats was 23.53 fantasy points per game.

Yes, that average is higher than what players like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady scored in losses.

After the Falcons led the NFL in scoring offense in 2016, they are currently averaging 29 points per game. This should force TyGod to pass more than usual.

Per the Rotoviz Game Splits App, in losses since he took over as the starter, Taylor has averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game, which is 10 attempts higher than his average in wins. His passing yards also increases from an average of 172.83 in wins to 232.73 in losses.

Another reason to like Taylor is his dirt cheap price of $7,100, which ranks 25th at the quarterback position. If you are looking to go cheap at quarterback, Taylor provides a safe floor with some impressive upside.