FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 4
If you've never played daily fantasy football on FanDuel before, it's time to start. Unlike traditional leagues, you're able to select the players you want on that specific day only, giving you a different squad to root for each and every week.
Here at numberFire we offer great tools for premium members. The analysis below is meant to help you understand why some of these players are top picks in our tools and projections because we don't want you going into the weekend completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things can change drastically if an injury is announced, so make sure you're double checking the tools and projections as close as possible to kickoff.
Let's break down the main slate on FanDuel for this week.
Devonta Freeman (FanDuel Price: $8,500) - Running back is loaded this week. But we should probably start with Freeman. His Falcons are eight-point home favorites against the Bills, who do have a pretty strong run defense. Buffalo ranks ninth in Success Rate allowed to running backs and in Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry. However, they might be even better against the pass, and Freeman's status as a big home favorite with a high implied total (28.25) should have him on our radar. He has outsnapped Tevin Coleman 62% to 41% and has a 34.7% market share compared to 19.4% for Coleman. You can also consider LeSean McCoy ($8,000) in this game, as the Falcons have faced a league-high 38 targets to running backs, and McCoy is sixth in overall market share among running backs.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500) - At the same price, Elliott is in a similar spot as Freeman, though the Dallas Cowboys' spread has moved from 7.5 to 6.0 since the opening (and the total has gone up half a point, as well). So that makes Dallas a touchdown favorite against the Los Angeles Rams with an implied total north of 26. Elliott has a snap rate of 87%, tying him for second with Le'Veon Bell, who draws a rough matchup at Baltimore. Zeke and Bell have identical 39.2% market shares. And similar to Freeman/McCoy, Todd Gurley ($8,000) is in play here, as he leads the position in market share by a wide margin, but Elliott as a favorite for only $500 more is the better play in cash-game formats.
Dalvin Cook ($7,500) - Cook is actually 3rd in market share among running backs so far this season and is 10th in snap rate at the position as well. His Vikings host the Lions in Week 4. Due to the uncertain status of Sam Bradford, there's no line or total posted, but our algorithms have the Vikings winning 56.7% of the time. Detroit is 19th in Success Rate allowed to running backs both on the ground and through the air.
Chris Carson ($6,600) - Carson's Seattle Seahawks are 13-point favorites on the Indianapolis Colts, who have been a top-five team in terms of Success Rate allowed to running backs so far, but the volume seems like a lock for Carson as such a heavy favorite. Carson has led Seattle running backs in snaps each game so far, to help mitigate any concerns we have about his role and modest rushing market share (48.1%).
Joe Mixon ($5,600) - Mixon finally got to be a feature back for the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3, as he played 56% of their snaps and had 21 touches (18 carries and 3 catches) against the Green Bay Packers. Jeremy Hill did have three red zone carries to Mixon's two (each had one from inside the 10). Giovani Bernard had a red zone target in Week 3. But Mixon's reasonable price helps make up for his lack of a stranglehold on third-down and goal-line work. Cleveland is 10th in Success Rate allowed to running backs, for what it's worth, and the Bengals' implied total is only 21.5 points. Again, the price is just so low that he's hard to write off entirely.
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