5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 2
Atlanta Falcons' Passing Offense
Just because we're slobbering all over Montgomery doesn't mean we have to avoid the bad, bad men on the opposing sideline. Getcha popcorn ready, y'all.
Matt Ryan finished last week as the 11th-highest scoring quarterback on FanDuel, checking in with an acceptable 17.94 points. That's not bad, but it's also not enough to make him stick out as an obvious play for the week. His advanced metrics were even better.
Ryan finished the game with 13.44 Passing NEP on 32 drop backs, equating to 0.42 per drop back. Again, he led the league at 0.37 in that metric last year, so he was actually even a hair better than his MVP showing from last season. His game against the Bears was on the road, and he'll return home for this one.
Ryan's efficiency meshes well with this Packers secondary. Despite possessing a respectable pass rush, Green Bay finished 2016 ranked 23rd against the pass, meaning that good things happened for the offense when the ball left the quarterback's hand. That would bode well for some guy named Julio Jones.
That said, the Packers were able to leverage that pass rush into a huge Week 1 against Russell Wilson, holding him to 158 passing yards on 30 drop backs. Sacks are a great way to kill a quarterback's fantasy value as they often prevent the team from scoring, and we need touchdowns to drive up a quarterback's fake football output.
The Falcons are likely better equipped to handle this test, though. The Seahawks played that game without left tackle George Fant, a loss for an offense that already struggled to keep its quarterback upright. The Falcons weren't elite in this department last year (they lost the 13th-most expected points due to sacks on a per-drop back basis), but their situation is far superior to Seattle's.
We saw Ryan exploit these deficiencies twice last year against Green Bay. In a regular-season matchup, he racked up 288 yards and 3 touchdowns on 35 attempts, and he topped that in the playoffs with 392 yards and 4 touchdowns on 38 attempts. That pass rush got to Ryan a combined two times across the two matchups, and none of the two sacks came in the playoff showdown. He's just $8,200 on FanDuel, which seems like quite a bargain.
If we love Ryan, you know we love Julio. It's just a given. Jones was quiet in Week 1, hauling in 4 of 5 targets for 66 yards, but he torched this Packers secondary for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns in the playoffs. You're paying up for Jones when possible.
The bigger question in this offense is what you do with Austin Hooper. Hooper was a stud in Week 1 with 128 yards and a touchdown, but it came on just two targets. How are we supposed to handle him here?
As hard as it may be given the matchup, it's likely best to look elsewhere for this week. The splash play will drive up his ownership, and using a high-ownership tight end is analogous to shooting a nail gun at your foot and hoping for the best. Sure, you could come out unscathed, but more often than not, that puppy's going to pin you down. Hooper played 79.7% of the snaps, so we'll be able to use him in the future, but let the public jump off the bandwagon before doing so.
If you decide to pivot away from Jones, your best outlet may instead be Mohamed Sanu. He led the team with nine targets in Week 1 while playing 81.4% of the snaps. We can accept that for $5,300 on FanDuel. It's likely best to just ride with Jones, but Sanu could be the second-best option for tournaments.
