5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 2
Green Bay Packers' Rushing Offense
Ty Montgomery certainly wasn't bad in Week 1, racking up 93 yards from scrimmage and scoring a touchdown. And with the over/under for his game this Sunday sitting at 53.5, you're not going to get him at low ownership. But that investment will be fully warranted.
Montgomery may not have had the same top-busting performance as a guy like Kareem Hunt, but he did something no other running back did: he played 74 total snaps, surpassing all other running backs by 10 plays. Only three backs came within 20 snaps of Montgomery's total. When those plays come with Aaron Rodgers as the starting quarterback, your loins are going to get all tingly.
In those 74 snaps, Montgomery ran the ball 19 times and picked up 4 targets in the passing game. Those clearly have value against the Seattle Seahawks' defense, but their allure soars when you're facing the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons finished 2016 ranked 31st against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics. They did add to their front seven in the offseason by drafting defensive end Takkarist McKinley and linebacker Duke Riley, but it didn't make things any better in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears. Here's how the Bears' running backs did against the Falcons in Week 1 compared to the Falcons' defense in 2016.
| Versus Falcons | Rushing NEP per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bears in Week 1 | 0.30 | 38.89% |
| 2016 Running Backs | 0.03 | 42.58% |
| 2016 League Average | -0.01 | 40.50% |
The Success Rate was lower, and we should trust that more in small samples, but that was while the Bears were without one of their top offensive linemen in Kyle Long. Montgomery can do some damage on the ground against this defense.
The rushing abilities may not even be the biggest allure behind Montgomery this week, though. Instead, that could lie in his role in the passing game.
Due to his late emergence and injuries, Montgomery played at least half of the snaps for the Green Bay Packers in just six games last year, and he was above 51% just three times. In games where he played at least half the snaps, though, his target market share was 18.0%. If it were that high for the full season, that would have been the second-highest mark in the league behind David Johnson. Montgomery showed that's still part of his game with his four targets last week.
On top of that, there may not be a team in football that funnels more targets to running backs than the Falcons. Bears rookie Tarik Cohen burst on the scene last week by leading the team with 12 targets, and Jordan Howard added in five of his own. They allowed 109 receptions to running backs in 2016, easily the highest mark in the league, so this assumption isn't based on a one-game sample, either.
Given the abilities of the Falcons' offense, it's entirely possible the Packers could trail in this game. Normally, we don't want our running backs in that scenario because it decreases the viability of the ground attack. With Montgomery's abilities as a pass catcher and the Falcons' defensive deficiencies, that's not much of a concern at all.
Montgomery is $6,500, and he's not going to be sneaky at all this week. But the combination of his snap rate, usage, and matchup give him an absurd combo of floor and ceiling, and we'd be foolish to fade him even with that being the case.
