Week 1 FanDuel NFL Tournament Pivots
Wide Receiver
Chalk:
At the top end, Antonio Brown and Julio Jones should both be popular options. In the mid-price range, Doug Baldwin, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, and Larry Fitzgerald should all see their fair share of ownership. Both Zay Jones and Kevin White find themselves in larger roles than they were when the pricing originally came out for this slate, and could be popular value plays.
Pivots:
A.J. Green, $8,400 (vs. Baltimore Ravens): A.J. Green finds himself in the same boat as Devonta Freeman. People are going to want to play him, but will they? With the top-four flex options all in awesome spots for production, lower-level studs like Green and Freeman may go overlooked.
On paper, a matchup with the Baltimore Ravens isn't great. However, this is a defense that is built to stop the run and defends tight ends very well. They take away the middle of the field, leaving themselves vulnerable to big plays down the sideline. You know who's good at making those plays? The Raven Killer. Green has caught a touchdown in each of his past five games against Baltimore, averaging 120.8 yards and 1.2 touchdowns during that span.
Jones and/or Brown could post a so-so game if their teams get up big early and turn to a more conservative game script. The Cincinnati Bengals, however, are just three-point favorites, so that seems much less likely for Green, especially if a Jeremy Hill-led Cincy rushing attack struggles against a very tough front seven.
Sammy Watkins, $6,900 (vs. Indianapolis Colts): There is some level of uncertainty with Sammy Watkins in his first game for a new team, and when that team is the Los Angeles Rams, it would make sense for daily fantasy players to take a wait-and-see approach in Week 1. With so many appealing plays in his price range, why roster the dude catching passes from Jared Goff?
Well, because he has the ceiling to change the landscape of tournaments.
The Indianapolis Colts were atrocious against the pass last season, ranking third-worst according to our metrics -- and that was with Vontae Davis suiting up for 14 games. Davis is out for this game, which will leave former undrafted free agent Rashaan Melvin, along with rookies Quincy Wilson and Nate Hairston to lead an uninspiring group of defensive backs.
Maybe this will be a grind-it-out game and Gurley will be the right play. But dang, Watkins makes for a pretty sexy leverage play as a pivot off of both Gurley ownership (who is going to use two players from the Rams together?) and the elite wide receiver ownership. Don't touch him in cash games, but he could be a terrific tournament pivot.
Kendall Wright, $5,200 (vs. Atlanta Falcons): If you're looking for a pivot off of the more popular value plays, look to Kendall Wright. With some positive buzz surrounding Kevin White leading up to this game, most could grab him. So it could be said that this is a non-traditional pivot play, as White is actually the upside play of the two, while Wright likely has the higher floor. When paying near-minimum price, though, you can't expect elite upside anyhow.
Of the two, Wright was far more effective last season, according to our metrics. He finished with a 0.87 Reception NEP per target (fifth among receivers with at least 40 targets) and 82.76% Success Rate -- the percentage of plays that result in a positive NEP -- as opposed to White's 0.29 Reception NEP per target and 73.68% Success Rate.
Wright also has some familiarity with offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains, who has seen him as the top dog in an offense before (Loggains coached Wright's 1,000-plus yard season in 2013). If White shows more of the same inconsistency he's exhibited throughout his short career -- or simply cannot win a one-on-one matchup against Desmond Trufant with any consistency -- Wright will likely be the one to get the targets.
