Week 1 FanDuel NFL Tournament Pivots

Running Back

Chalk:

With tons of value on a slate that was priced nearly a month ago, most people will find a way to fit in one of David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, or Lesean McCoy, as all three project for 20-plus touches in positive game scripts. In the mid-range, DeMarco Murray should be popular in a positive game script against an Oakland Raiders defense that ranked in the bottom 10 in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play last year.

Todd Gurley also profiles as someone who could carry high ownership, as his Los Angeles Rams are four-point favorites against a weak Indianapolis Colts defense. If paying all the way down at the position, daily fantasy players will likely go with Thomas Rawls at just $5,700.

Pivots:

Devonta Freeman, $8,300 (at Chicago Bears): Yes, Devonta Freeman should be chalky -- the matchup and game script are too good for him to be low-owned. However, with everyone so in love with the backs listed above -- as well as Antonio Brown and Julio Jones at receiver -- there just might not be enough salary to go around to fit in Freeman. He still isn't likely to have low ownership, but there is a vey real possibility he'll have half the ownership of someone like Bell.

As mentioned earlier this week, Freeman has averaged 19.6 FanDuel points in games Atlanta was favored over the past two seasons, as opposed to 14.3 in all others. When the Falcons won during that time, that average jumped above 20 FanDuel points. If Atlanta gets up early in this game and feeds Freeman as they run out the clock, he could be in for a big day.

Bilal Powell, $6,300 (at Buffalo Bills): Speaking of game scripts, Bilal Powell is a running back who actually might benefit from having his team trailing in nearly every game. The New York Jets don't have any proven weapons in the pass game outside of Powell, who they fed 5.8 targets per game over their final four outings last season. During those games, he averaged 138 scrimmage yards and 20.9 FanDuel points, which made him the second-highest scoring back during that span.

Despite this, Powell comes in as just the 22nd-most-expensive back on the slate, way too cheap for his potential usage. If Rawls struggles against a surprisingly stingy Green Bay Packers run defense, Powell could be the best value at the position.

Tarik Cohen, $4,500 (vs. Atlanta Falcons): Before we get into this one at all, it is important to understand that Tarik Cohen is nothing more than a deep dart throw in tournaments, as we don't yet know how he will be used at the NFL level.

With that disclaimer out of the way, let's get way too excited about the minimum-priced rookie. After exploding onto the scene this preseason (121 yards on 19 carries), Cohen is expected to play the Darren Sproles role for the Bears. That role isn't ordinarily one to offer tons of fantasy value, but it is an exciting proposition if the back plays for a team that will regularly find itself in negative game scripts. Know any teams like that? Maybe Da Bears?

Well, with Chicago currently listed as seven-point underdogs, it would appear that they will most certainly be throwing the ball in this game. Which running back will likely be in on those passing downs? Jordan Howard? Nah, fam. Even Howard acknowledged that he isn't the pass-catching back on the team. “[The other Bears running backs] do a lot of stuff I can’t do, especially Tarik,” Howard said. “I don’t think there’s anything he can’t do.”

So Cohen might get the passing work, and there might be a lot of passing work for him to receive. (See what I did there?) Not only was Atlanta the fifth-worst team against the run last year according to our metrics, but they were unable to cover opposing backs out of the backfield. They allowed more targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns to running backs than any team in the league. Opposing backs averaged 6.8 catches for 54.4 yards per game against them.

Cohen comes at a $1,200 discount from Rawls, and while he doesn't have nearly the floor that Rawls does, the rookie has the ability to break any given play for a long gain. Give him a look in large-field tournaments.