Week 1 FanDuel NFL Tournament Pivots

Quarterback

Chalk:

Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr figure to both be popular options in a head-to-head battle that includes the second-highest over/under (50.5) on the slate. Matt Ryan is the most expensive quarterback, but will draw many to pay up for him after his MVP season, especially in a matchup against the Chicago Bears.

A discounted Cam Newton ($7,900) also may end up being a trendy play, with his Carolina Panthers holding a 26.0-point implied team total against the San Francisco 49ers.

Pivots:

Kirk Cousins, $8,100 (vs. Philadelphia Eagles): Considering his so-so matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, Kirk Cousins feels just a bit overpriced. Combine that with him playing his first regular season game with a new group of receivers, and people may not feel confident in him, which leaves his ownership lower than it might be otherwise.

While Philly posted fairly strong numbers against the pass last season, this is a secondary that can be picked on a bit from a talent perspective. Cousins has done just that in four meetings with them over the past two seasons, averaging 288 passing yards, 2.25 passing touchdowns, and 22 FanDuel points.

He doesn't have as obvious of a path to success as Ryan, but it isn't hard to paint a picture in which the Atlanta Falcons get up early in their game and lean more on the run. On the other hand, Cousins will likely be required to throw it 35-plus times in a game where the Washington Redskins are one-point home underdogs. Considering their likely difference in ownership, it may be worth it to pivot to Cousins in tournament lineups.

Carson Palmer, $7,300 (at Detroit Lions): With Mariota and Carr priced just $500 and $400 more, respectively, many might not feel the need to pay all the way down for Carson Palmer, especially after a disappointing season. Couple that with the fact that David Johnson is likely to be chalky and people won't want too much exposure to an offense with a middle-of-the-pack implied team total (25.00 points), and we have ourselves a recipe for a low-owned quarterback.

The Detroit Lions defense might be shaky enough to justify both Cards as solid options. According to our opponent-adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, no team ranked worse against the pass than Detroit last season. NEP reflects the number of points a player contributes -- either positively or negatively -- to his team versus what is expected against the league average. That is determined by looking at historical results in similar game situations (down, distance, line of scrimmage). You can read more about NEP in our glossary.

With a healthy John Brown back in the mix, Palmer is a sneaky bet for production. Even during a down 2016, Palmer still had four different three-touchdown games, so the upside is definitely there. If he has one of those games and the Tennessee Titans-Oakland Raiders chalk doesn't hit like everyone thinks it will, the few that pivoted to Palmer in tournaments will be at a huge advantage over the majority who played Mariota and Carr.