Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 1

Start the Bills Defense Because of Line Movement

What is line movement? Well, during the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible to begin taking bets. For Week 1, these lines were posted as early as back in May and have since been adjusted. They are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

The Buffalo Bills are nine-point home favorites against the low-flying New York Jets, currently making them the biggest favorites of the weekend. Sunday's tilt is also interesting because of the declining game total. The game opened at an already low total of 42.5 back in May and has slowly dropped to 40.0 points.

Last year, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total was between 39 and 42 points in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 8.06 fantasy points per game. In that same year, if the total dropped two points or more throughout the week, defenses involved scored an average of 8.3 fantasy points per game.

While the Buffalo D/ST is the most expensive defensive option on DraftKings, they are priced at $4,700 on FanDuel, tied for the fifth-most expensive unit.