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Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 1

Matt Blair  —  @grizzlyblair Sep 8th, 2017
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Start Todd Gurley as a Favorite

Todd Gurley's second season was a letdown. I had not been this disappointed by a second season since True Detective. That being said, coming into 2017, there is some reason for optimism.

The Los Angeles Rams are favored by four points at home versus the Indianapolis Colts. Just days ago, the Colts were favored by three points prior to Andrew Luck being ruled out.

Gurley has excelled when the Rams are in this situation. In 10 games as a favorite, Gurley has averaged 17.56 half-PPR (point per reception) fantasy points per game. His average in games as an underdog is only 11.63 points. This discrepancy can also be seen in wins and losses. In wins, Gurley has averaged 17.37 half-PPR points per game and just 10.79 in losses.

He's priced at 10th among running backs on FanDuel with a savory matchup versus the Colts. The Vegas trends back him as well making him a safe play in all formats.

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