Week 12 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ers

Over/Under: 45.5
Dolphins Implied Team Total: 26.50
49ers Implied Team Total: 19.00

The Miami Dolphins are projected for the slate's third-highest implied team total (26.5 points) against the 49ers, which should come as no surprise after watching San Fran's past five opponents average 33.8 points against them. Miami should also benefit from San Fran's quick pace of play, as the Niners have played at the fastest pace in the league this season and have had the most plays run against them per game (71.6) by a large margin.

Their combination of an inefficient offense (seventh-worst in Adjusted Offensive NEP per play) that plays at a quick pace and the league's ninth-worst defense, per our metrics, results in a large increase in fantasy value to opposing players -- specifically running backs -- due to the extra plays.

Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins

FanDuel Price: $8,400

That is a perfect segue to one of the top plays on the board this weekend, Jay Ajayi. Ajayi is first by a large margin in the league in Rushing NEP per play (0.18) and yards per attempt (5.6), while coming in third in Success Rate (46.15 percent) among backs with at least 100 carries. He's good.

This week, he'll take on a 49ers rush defense that ranks dead last in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, yards per carry allowed (5.2), and FanDuel points allowed per game (31). They're not so good.

Ajayi has also performed much better from a fantasy perspective when Miami has been able to control the game, averaging 176 rushing yards and 27.3 FanDuel points from Week 6 through Week 9, as opposed to the past two weeks when Miami has been playing from behind. This would fall in line with the evidence provided by Raybon earlier regarding running back performance when playing as favorites. If game script holds up in this one and Miami plays with the lead, Ajayi should join a long list of running backs who have posted monster performances against the Niners.

Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers

FanDuel Price: $7,200

Colin Kaepernick has been surprisingly effective from a fantasy perspective, averaging 22.2 FanDuel points over his past three contests. He provides a solid floor, with 52 rushing yards per game this season, and Kaep has actually looked the part of a capable passer over the past three weeks, averaging 271 passing yards and 1.7 touchdowns.

Two of those three games have come against teams with solid pass defenses and in games the Niners were projected for less than 20 points. So he is more than capable of putting up a big game against Miami this week in spite of the implied team total.

Creating a game stack by pairing Kaep and Ajayi helps split the chalk on Ajayi -- as Kaep likely won't be nearly as popular as Ajayi -- while making a lot of sense from a game script perspective, too. If Miami jumps out to an early lead, Ajayi should handle plenty of carries while Kaep is allowed to drop back frequently in catch-up mode.

Others to Consider

DeVante Parker has caught 13 of 19 targets for 182 yards and 30.7 FanDuel points over the past two weeks, all of which lead the team. He'll have every opportunity to keep his hot streak going against a 49ers secondary that has allowed the third-most FanDuel points per game and the most touchdowns to opposing receivers this season.