Week 12 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Over/Under: 47.0
Jets Implied Team Total: 19.00
Patriots Implied Team Total: 28.00
This matchup between the New York Jets and New England Patriots features the fourth-highest over/under on the slate, thanks in large part to New England's slate-leading 28-point implied team total. The Pats have averaged 31.7 points in games quarterbacked by Tom Brady this season, so it would be a surprise if they didn't cover the nine-point spread against the 3-7 Jets.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $9,100
Brady heads into this one on the heels of a four-touchdown performance, his second of the season and fourth game of at least 27 FanDuel points. He has easily been the most efficient passer this season, according to our metrics, ranking first in Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back (0.45) among quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs.
Brady will have every opportunity to continue his reign of terror this week against a Jets secondary that ranks fifth-worst in schedule-adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. According to NEP per drop back, the Jets have faced only two top-12 quarterbacks this season (Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger), and they allowed them to post a combined 689 passing yards and 7 touchdowns. It's scary to imagine what Tom Brady will do to them.
If history is any indicator, game script sets up quite well for Brady in this one. Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Brady has excelled when the Pats have won by at least nine points over the past three seasons. Since the start of the 2014 season, Brady has averaged 304 passing yards and 2.7 touchdowns in such games, as opposed to 261 yards and 1.7 touchdowns in all other games.
Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $6,400
Julian Edelman is coming off of an 18.9 FanDuel-point performance in Week 11, a week in which he also led the entire NFL with 17 targets. He has played much better over his past four games, averaging 12.6 FanDuel points and 11 targets, as opposed to 7.3 FanDuel points and 7.3 targets through his first six games.
If you expect Brady to have a big game against New York's susceptible secondary, then what better place to start than with his number one receiver? Be sure to keep an eye on the status of Rob Gronkowski, too, as Edelman has averaged 11.4 targets with Gronk out of the lineup over the past four seasons, as opposed to 8.8 with him.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $6,800
The daily fantasy community as a whole was disappointed by LeGarrette Blount last week, who posted "only" 12.4 FanDuel points against the San Francisco 49ers. Blount actually performed well, piling up 124 rushing yards (6.5 yards per attempt), but he was held out of the end zone for just the second time this season.
He'll have a tough matchup against an intimidating Jets front-seven, which is allowing a meager 3.5 yards per rush. But the Jets' defense is one that has shown some vulnerability over recent weeks, allowing 20.5 FanDuel points to Jay Ajayi in Week 10, 27.9 combined to Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson in Week 9, and 33.3 to David Johnson in Week 7.
Blount has shown the ability to put up monster performances in tough matchups (24.9 FanDuel points against the Seattle Seahawks) due to his touchdown-dependent ways. If he scores early as part of the Pats getting out to a big lead, it wouldn't be surprising to see him get more scoring opportunities as they run out the clock and post a big fantasy performance at very low ownership. As Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."
