5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 5
Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Offense
Given everything working in their favor this week, the Pittsburgh Steelers should be the chalk. They're still going to be abundantly popular, to be sure. But with the "angry Tom Brady" narrative cooking at light speed, this is a great time to invest.
The Steelers are at home this week for a matchup with the battered New York Jets. As you've likely noticed, the Jets aren't quite what they used to be, ranking 30th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. That's while Darrelle Revis has been healthy, and that's no longer the case.
Darrelle Revis, Eric Decker not practicing as Jets begin Steelers prep https://t.co/H29jnYCoQG
— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) October 5, 2016
Revis may not be his old self, but an absence is an absence, and it should just amp up our enthusiasm about Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger.
The Steelers sit eighth in Adjusted Passing NEP per play despite an utterly wretched performance against the Philadelphia Eagles. They get the added benefit of playing this contest at home, where Roethlisberger has been fully dominant the past two years.
| Venue | Dropbacks | Passing NEP | Passing NEP Per Drop Back |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 318 | 103.81 | 0.33 |
| Away | 324 | 44.71 | 0.14 |
Over a similar number of drop backs, Roethlisberger has been almost 60 points better at home than on the road since the start of 2015. That helps him, Brown, Le'Veon Bell, Sammie Coates, the beer vendors, and everyone even loosely associated with his Gucciness.
Not only is Roethlisberger more efficient at home, but the team's pace shoots through the roof. They've averaged one play every 27.69 seconds at home over that same span compared to one play every 28.84 seconds on the road. This is despite having an 8-2 record at home and 5-5 on the road, meaning you'd expect their pace to be much slower for the home games.
They're efficient. They're fast. They're beautiful. And they're worthy of being chalky this week.
Obviously Roethlisberger and Brown are fun, but Coates deserves some love, too. He saw a season-high eight targets in Week 4, and the coaches have spoken highly of him this week. If you want to stack with Roethlisberger without paying up for Brown, Coates is a tremendous alternative.
