5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 5
Welcome to Narrative Week, 2016, everyone. It's gonna suck.
As you've probably picked up on by now, Tom Brady's anger has made him a must-play in the minds of many when it comes to daily fantasy football. And given that he's facing the Cleveland Browns, who are in full-blown rebuild mode, who would blame you for thinking this?
Tom Brady is a great play. But he's not the only play.
In fact, there may be teams in better positions than Brady and his New England Patriots whom we are overlooking simply because they don't have the proper level of pissed-offedness. That gives us plenty of opportunity to pivot off of Brady's compadres and into juicy matchups elsewhere.
We can spot these matchups using numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP). This is the metric we use to track the efficiency of both teams and players with the team totals being adjusted based on strength of opponent.
Here's how NEP works. Prior to each play, there's an expected number of points a team will score on its current drive. A three-yard completion on 3rd and 2 will pick up a first down, resulting in an increase in those expected points. That same three-yard completion on 3rd and 4, though, will likely result in a punt, and the team will lose NEP. Tracking these fluctuations over the course of a season will tell us which units operated in the most (or least) efficient manner.
Again, this isn't to dissuade you from using Brady and the Patriots. It's simply to show you that you have other options. Here are five matchups you can exploit in Week 5.