Market Share Report: John Brown Is Officially Back
Carry Market Shares
1. Mark Ingram's Role Is Increasing
Nobody would have blamed you for getting all jittery about Mark Ingram after Week 1. He had only two targets -- a floor he hit just once all of last season -- and played a mere 42.0% of the snaps. Everything since then, though, has been smelling like daisies, especially Week 4.
Even though Ingram was victim to the John Kuhn goal-line snipe, he still controlled 18 of the 29 running-back carries while seeing a season-high seven targets and 65.8% snap rate. That snap rate came in a game where the team trailed for a majority of the second half, meaning he's likely the team's top passing-down option again. From a usage perspective, this was an ideal game for Ingram.
The one negative for Ingram is his schedule. After the bye, their next three home games are against the Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks, and Denver Broncos, all of whom have quality defensive units. Even with this working against Ingram, though, his increased usage in the passing game gives him a floor that he didn't have the first few weeks, and it means we can feel better about buying him despite the schedule.
2. DeMarco Murray Is an Every-Down Player
Back in Week 2, it seemed like Derrick Henry was about to get his shot for the Tennessee Titans. He was on the field for 46.3% of the snaps, snagging 9 carries compared to 12 for DeMarco Murray. Murray's involvement in the passing game would give him a floor, but Henry's presence capped his upside -- or so it seemed.
That's not much of a worry anymore.
In Week 4, Murray out-carried Henry, 25-3, and was on the field for 95.5% of the team's snaps. Henry, on the other hand, played nine total snaps, easily his lowest mark on the season. This table shows their weekly snap rates, and it's clear this hasn't been a static playing-time distribution for the two.
| Snap Rate | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 74.6% | 61.2% | 75.0% | 95.5% |
| Derrick Henry | 31.3% | 46.3% | 35.3% | 13.6% |
Murray's snap rate was fine to begin with. But once you toss Week 4 into the equation along with his 25 carries, he becomes even more attractive. His 15.6% target market share is the second-highest mark on the offense, so we can buy into Murray even if the offense as a whole is disappointing.
3. Bilal Powell Is Cutting into Matt Forte's Workload
It seemed pretty obvious that a running back in his age-31 season wouldn't be able to maintain the 26-carry-per-game average that Matt Forte was rocking through the first two weeks. We just didn't think it'd collapse this quickly.
In Week 4, Forte did out-carry backfield mate Bilal Powell, 14-4, which doesn't appear bad at first glance. However, that did tie a season-high in carries for Powell, and Forte's carry mark was his lowest of the season. This brings Forte's carry market share for the season down to 75%, a solid reduction from where it was through the first two weeks.
What this essentially shows is that Forte's floor is going to be scary when the team is in negative game flow. Powell saw more snaps than Forte on Sunday as the team tried to chase down the Seahawks, and Powell's nine targets illustrate that he's going to be the pass-catching back. Unless the New York Jets are heavy favorites, it's going to be hard to have a lot of trust in Forte going forward.
