Fantasy Football: 6 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 1

Avoid Danny Woodhead as an Underdog

Plenty of people have made the mistake of starting Danny Woodhead in games where the San Diego Chargers were underdogs because that likely meant that they would be passing more.

Surprisingly, Woodhead has done remarkably worse as an underdog, averaging 7.68 fantasy points per game throughout his career.

The Chargers are one of the biggest underdogs of the week heading into Arrowhead (seven-point dogs). According to the Rotoviz Game Splits App, since Andy Reid has joined the Kansas City Chiefs in 2013, they have averaged about two more rushing attempts and about four more rushing yards per game when the Chiefs are favored by seven points or more. That may not seem like much, but the Chiefs leaned heavily on Charcandrick West and eventually Spencer Ware in 2015. Ware is the likely starter in Week 1, and the likeliness of the Chiefs rushing should mean less time for the Chargers to possess the ball.

To further the point, the Chargers tended to pass less as underdogs in 2015. According to the Rotoviz Team Splits App, the Chargers averaged 4 fewer passing attempts and 62 fewer passing yards as underdogs than they did as favorites.

Woodhead is a cheap $5,800 on FanDuel this weekend, but he's unlikely to return value on your investment.