4 Wide Receivers Who Could Lose Significant Targets in 2016

DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans

Let's just get this out of the way before I get admonished by you readers. DeAndre Hopkins is still going to eat this year. He's a really good receiver and the unquestioned number-one receiver on his team.

But this piece is about receivers who could lose a decent portion of their target share, and changes in circumstances in Houston could easily facilitate that reduction for Hopkins.

Hopkins' 192 targets from the 2015 season were third-most in the league. But as our own JJ Zachariason pointed out back in May, it's important to look at some of the changes that happened mid-season which could predict this reduction in targets.

Through the first eight games of the season, Hopkins garnered 112 targets. That's an outrageous average of 14 targets per game. But in the final eight games of the season, Hopkins saw 80 targets, an average of 10 per game.

As JJ pointed out, after seven games into the season, the Houston Texans were ranked as the 20th-best defense in the league per our metrics. But by the end of the season, they were ranked as the third-best defense in the league on a per-play basis. Hopkins' reduction in targets coincided with a significant team defense improvement, leading to fewer pass-happy game scripts.

The Texans also signed Lamar Miller in the offseason after he spent four years on the Miami Dolphins as an efficient, underutilized running back. And Bill O'Brien likes to run the ball. In his first season in Houston, the Texans actually sported the lowest pass-to-run ratio in the entire league.

In the new NFL, where passing is far more en-vogue than running, the Texans actually registered more rushing attempts than passing attempts when a mostly healthy Arian Foster was there to carry the load in 2014. So for the Lamar Miller believers, you may rejoice. But it's very likely to come, at least to some degree, at Hopkins' expense in the passing game.

And the Texans didn't exactly rest on their laurels in the receiving department this offseason either. They spent two high draft picks on Will Fuller and Braxton Miller. Fuller, at least, has impressed his coaching staff this offseason and seems likely to occupy the number-two role on the field.

With Fuller's 4.32 40-yard dash time occupying the 99th-percentile among NFL receivers, he should provide deep ball skills that could lead to a significant upgrade from Nate Washington and/or Cecil Shorts, each of whom finished below league average in Reception NEP per target in 2015.

If one or both become factors in the passing game, the Texans' defense carries their performance over from the second half of 2015, and the Texans re-emphasize their run game as expected by the signing of Miller, Hopkins' target share is very likely to be in line for a reduction from the stratospheric heights of his 2015 season.