4 Wide Receivers Who Could Lose Significant Targets in 2016

Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins

Of all the receivers on this list, Jarvis Landry is probably least likely to receive a significant reduction in targets in 2016. But there are good reasons to think it's not totally out of the question.

First, the Dolphins were fortunate enough to secure the head coaching services of the offensive-minded Adam Gase in 2016. Gase has worked magic as an offensive coordinator for the past three seasons, two of which were spent in Denver -- and one-and-a-half of those spent with a healthy Peyton Manning at quarterback -- and one in Chicago.

Gase's time spent in Chicago is probably most comparable to his current team situation in that he's taking over the play-calling for a team with some good talent on the offensive side of the ball with an inefficient quarterback at the helm in Ryan Tannehill.

In 2014, under Gase's guidance, Jay Cutler was able to improve from a career 0.04 Passing NEP per drop back to a far more impressive 0.13 Passing NEP per drop back. This improvement came with a oft-injured receiving corps where Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, and Eddie Royal all missed significant chunks of playing time.

But Cutler's efficiency spike came in tandem with a 21% reduction in total drop backs from the year prior. Tannehill, who sports an also inefficient career 0.02 Passing NEP per drop back, probably won't experience that drastic of a reduction in pass attempts with a mostly healthy receiving corps, but we shouldn't be surprised if there is some reduction nonetheless, which could affect Landry's total target volume.

It's also important to analyze how Gase has directed his passes in his past positions. In 2014 and 2015, the X-receiver role, occupied by Demaryius Thomas and Alshon Jeffery respectively, each eclipsed at 30% team target share when looking only at games they were active.

Landry, who is not an X-receiver, operates primarily out of the slot, catching short and intermediate passes. And looking at the numbers, well, he just doesn't do a lot with that on a per-target basis.

In terms of per-target efficiency, Landry finished in the bottom quartile of receivers with at least 100 targets in his rookie season and dead last among receivers meeting that same criteria in 2015. By contrast, Landry’s teammate DeVante Parker finished fourth in Reception NEP per target out of the 86 receivers drawing at least 50 targets in 2015.

Landry also finished near rock-bottom in terms of Reception Success Rate in both his rookie and sophomore seasons -- not good if you're a coach interested in moving the chains on a frequent basis. Perhaps the Dolphins' staff was aware of Landry's inefficiencies when they traded up to select Leonte Carroo in the third round of the NFL Draft this year. Carroo's 63.9% College Dominator rating ranks in the 99th percentile among college prospects entering the NFL.

Parker hasn't exactly sold himself to the new coaching regime in Miami; he's been on and off the field with nagging hamstring injuries, and Gase has publicly called him out for not having yet mastered the off-the-field practices necessary to keep him on the field.

It's likely that Landry's downtick in efficiency from his rookie campaign had much to do with a bevy of struggles happening with the Dolphins in 2015, including poor offensive game planning which didn't get Lamar Miller involved enough in the running game to open up the passing game and poor offensive line play affecting Tannehill's production and efficiency.

But Landry wasn't all that efficient to begin with. And if Parker can put it together this season, Gase's history suggests he's much more likely to give opportunity to the 6'3", 209-pound athletic specimen whose closest NFL comparison is A.J. Green.

Don't bank on Landry losing a significant target share in 2016, but ruling it out would be foolhardy based on his new coach's tendencies from previous NFL stints.