College Football Market Share Report: Week 11
Since many of the 2018 law changes that marked the return of college football daily fantasy, it has been quickly growing. After all, more individuals watched the 2020 National Championship Game than any other non-NFL sporting event.
With so many eyeballs on the games, and some monster statistics put up by the elite players in the sport, it is natural for many to gravitate to playing daily fantasy instead of traditional betting. FanDuel offers college football contests each weekend, which can include Thursday, Friday, and Saturday main slates -- depending on game volume.
College football is a unique challenge for DFS, as a lot of necessary information is not easily found. Often, injury news is reported through the schools themselves and newspaper beat reporters. It can also be particularly difficult to find accurate information on which players are on the field, who has the best usage, and where inefficiencies in the salary cap model may reside.
The latter point is the premise for this piece, which in addition to numberFire's betting guides and daily fantasy helpers, is designed to help you find out which college football players are on the field and seeing work.
With that in mind, let's examine the market shares for players on Saturday's main slate on FanDuel.
Note: Players with fewer than 10 pass attempts, 10 rushing attempts, and 5 targets in the previous week will not be featured but may still be viable in daily fantasy formats. For players returning from off weeks, previous reports will contain their most recent sample. All stats are from PFF.com.
|Tyler Van Dyke||MIA||34||28.1||9.47||2.4||17.3|
Taulia Tagovailoa ($7,700) jumps right off the page as a stand-out value for this Saturday's slate. The Maryland signal-caller flung the pill 59 times in a negative script last weekend against Penn State, and the Terps should be on tap for another as 12.5-point underdogs to Michigan State on Saturday. It should produce better results for Tagovailoa as well; Sparty is allowing 350.9 passing yards per game to their opponents this season. Amazingly, that is the most in all of FBS for the Power 5 school.
Many of the best quarterback options are coming off a bye week and not featured here, but don't ignore KJ Jefferson ($9,400) entirely. Jefferson is a great way to access a Louisiana State defense that is 72nd against the rush and 104th against the pass. Jefferson is a plus target in any matchup because he stacks so well with Treylon Burks ($8,800) with minimal options around the pair for Arkansas. Consistent volume against bad defenses is worth its weight in gold.
I'm likely going to pass on Matt Corral ($9,500) this weekend altogether. After injuring his ankle against Auburn, Corral only has 54 rushing yards in two games. His matchup with Texas A&M is a difficult one as well. The Aggies are 23rd in the country (194.7 passing yards per game) as a pass defense. Without the rushing upside and facing a tough defense likely without Dontario Drummond ($7,500), there are too many better alternatives to roster the potential top pick in the upcoming NFL draft.
|Kenneth Walker III||MSU||22||21.8||64.5%||3||4.8%|
|Ricky Person Jr.||NCST||10||11.7||39.2%||2||9.2%|
It always feels like a great Saturday when we have running backs that can be used opposite the other teams' quarterbacks and pass-catchers. Both Kenneth Walker III ($10,500) and Tyrion Davis-Price ($7,200) fit that description as compliments to the aforementioned Maryland and Arkansas passing attacks. Walker III is a given with Michigan State well-positioned, but Davis-Price would normally see a downgrade as a 2.5-point underdog to the Razorbacks. Given, though, that TDP saw 23 carries last week in an exclusively negative script, expect the Tigers to lean on their lead back once again.
Jaylen Knighton ($9,200) has more than a fair salary given his workload that is essentially here to stay. Knighton has 70 of the 82 running back carries for Miami (FL) since Cam'Ron Harris suffered his season-ending knee injury three weeks ago. He'll likely be utilized often again as the Hurricanes are 2.5-point underdogs visiting Florida State. Knighton gets to attack the 68th-ranked Seminoles' rush defense, and in turn, Jordan Travis ($6,800) is a solid flex quarterback bring-back against the Canes' 117th-ranked pass defense.
Early-season darling Leddie Brown ($8,000) has dropped quite a ways from his torrid start. He handled only 10 of West Virginia's 16 running back carries on Saturday in a negative game script, and he'll likely see another as a 6.5-point underdog to Kansas State. This game -- with two solid defenses -- also has just a 47.5-point total, so it appears best to just leave Brown and Deuce Vaughn ($9,600) in the garage until at least next week.
|John Rhys Plumlee||MISS||8||30.8%||3.1||8.1%||6.9%|
|John Samuel Shenker||AUB||7||17.9%||3.9||11.8%||14.8%|
|Velus Jones Jr.||TENN||7||35.0%||5.3||21.0%||25.5%|
|Kevin Austin Jr.||ND||6||21.4%||6.2||20.2%||22.6%|
As 20.5-point favorites over Purdue, the Ohio State wideout situation that has frustrated me (and likely others) all season appears to be not even worth considering. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($7,800) popped due to the injury of Garrett Wilson ($8,600) to see 18 targets against Nebraska when his season-high in targets entering last week was 7. Wilson is expected to return this week, but Smith-Njigba could have an expanded role given his positive play last week. Chris Olave ($9,100) also doesn't have a great season-long target share for his salary. Personally, it's too hard to know where the ball is going in what could be a half of playing time to even bother here.
Market share concerns kept me away from Wake Forest last weekend. In hindsight, that was a mistake; Wake and North Carolina played one of the most embarrassing defensive games in ACC history on Saturday. Still, A.T. Perry ($9,200) and Jacquarii Robinson ($9,000) both paid off with 15 and 11 targets in that pristine environment against the Tar Heels. This weekend with North Carolina State may be a different story. NC State is just 60th in the country in total yards per game (404.2) and plays per game (71.2), so they may struggle to keep pace. With elevated salaries, the Demon Deacons are also hard to get correct.
As discussed last week, if using Oklahoma players in your lineups, the Baylor bring-back on the other side can be tricky, but Ty'Quan Thornton ($8,000) is the place to go. R.J. Sneed ($6,900) saw a massive, 11-target performance in Week 9, yet he followed it up with 2 targets in Week 10. Sneed has seen three or fewer targets in three of his nine games this year, and Thornton has seen eight or more in five of the same nine games. He's higher-salaried, but also far more consistent. However, it's worth noting both could have opportunities in a negative script against the 122nd-ranked Sooners' passing defense.