College Football Betting Guide: Friday 10/15/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Marshall -10.5: 5 Stars out of 5
North Texas is off to a 1-4 start this season; their only win came against Northwestern State (FCS). Most of the losses for the Mean Green have been noncompetitive, with all but one of their defeats coming by double digits. Their average margin of defeat is 16.75 in their 4 games against FBS opponents.
Marshall is 3-3 overall this season and 2-3 against FBS opponents. The Thundering Herd have performed well offensively, averaging 33 points per game against FBS competition. Marshall should have no problem scoring on Friday night, and we project them to score 46.99 points against the vulnerable North Texas defense.
Our model gives Marshall a 73.63% chance to cover the spread, making this a five-star bet for Friday.
Over 41.5: 2 Stars out of 5
San Diego State is 5-0 to start the season, and they find themselves ranked 24th in the latest AP Poll. The Aztecs have played great defensively all year, but their offense has also produced at least 28 points in all 5 of their games this season. The Aztecs could get close to the game total just from their own scoring, as we project them to score 27.17 points in this contest.
San Jose State is not a great offensive team, but they are averaging 20.5 points per game halfway through their season. Four of the Spartans' six games have gone over the game total of 41.5, while three of the five San Diego State games have gone over this game's total.
Both teams provide a little bit more offense than the game total is suggesting. The model understandably likes the over here with a 59.0% likelihood to cash.
Oregon -13.5: 2 Stars out of 5
Oregon suffered an extremely disappointing overtime loss to Stanford in their last game, but they are still having a very strong season overall. The Ducks are 4-1 and ranked 9th in the AP Poll, mostly thanks to a win on the road against the current #6 Ohio State Buckeyes.
California is having a difficult season at 1-4; their only victory came against Sacramento State (FCS). The Golden Bears are 0-4 against FBS teams, and they have yet to face a team in the top 25 -- much less one as talented as this Oregon team that went on the road and won in Columbus. Oregon will be by far Cal’s biggest test of the season to date, and they have failed consistently against much weaker opponents.
Our model gives the Ducks a 57.93% chance to cover a 13.5-point spread at home -- good enough for a two-star bet on Friday night.