College Football Market Share Report: Week 6
Since many of the 2018 law changes that marked the return of college football daily fantasy, it has been quickly growing. After all, more individuals watched the 2020 National Championship Game than any other non-NFL sporting event.
With so many eyeballs on the games, and some monster statistics put up by the elite players in the sport, it is natural for many to gravitate to playing daily fantasy instead of traditional betting. FanDuel offers college football contests each weekend, which can include Thursday, Friday, and Saturday main slates -- depending on game volume.
College football is a unique challenge for DFS, as a lot of necessary information is not easily found. Often, injury news is reported through the schools themselves and newspaper beat reporters. It can also be particularly difficult to find accurate information on which players are on the field, who has the best usage, and where inefficiencies in the salary cap model may reside.
The latter point is the premise for this piece, which in addition to numberFire's betting guides and daily fantasy helpers, is designed to help you find out which college football players are on the field and seeing work.
With that in mind, let's examine the market shares for players on Saturday's main slate on FanDuel.
Note: Players with fewer than 10 pass attempts, 10 rushing attempts, and 5 targets in the previous week will not be featured but may still be viable in daily fantasy formats. For players returning from off weeks, previous reports will contain their most recent sample.
This week is a great lesson on why volume is not everything in college football. Bo Nix ($6,800) is untouchable this weekend despite a monstrous 27.6 FanDuel points on the road against Louisiana State last weekend. Georgia held Arkansas to just 162 total yards of offense in their 37-0 win over the 8th-ranked Razorbacks, and Nix has not been the most efficient passer himself (6.57 yards per attempt). Nix is an easy cross-off in that matchup -- even at home.
With that matchup in mind, Arkansas's KJ Jefferson ($8,900) is an interesting spot to rebound at a lowry salary against Mississippi. Ole Miss is giving up 5.04 yards per play despite having Austin Peay (FCS) and Tulane in half their contests with a significant athletic advantage, and that led to them getting bludgeoned by Alabama last week. Jefferson's rushing upside is apparent inside the 5.8 attempts per game, and he has cashed in on a pair of scores as well. Combined with his solid 10.06 yards per attempt throwing, he is a tremendous budget option to find a dual-threat quarterback with QB1 upside.
With an equal opponent alongside, Spencer Rattler ($8,800) may never get lower in terms of both fantasy production and salary. Rattler only threw 26 times last Saturday against Kansas State, likely in a smart effort to keep the Wildcats from pounding Oklahoma in time of possession. The game environment should be perfect for Rattler this weekend in the "Red River Rivalry" against Texas. Rattler and the Sooners are 3.5-point favorites in a game with a massive, 63.5-point total. For the fans of trends, Oklahoma's quarterback has thrown at least three touchdowns in every contest with Texas since 2018 -- including Rattler last year.
|Brian Robinson Jr.||ALA||36||36||73||43.7%||0||3.4%|
|Chris Rodriguez Jr.||UK||19||19||104||63.0%||0||5.9%|
|Henry Parrish Jr.||MISS||14||11||36||23.2%||3||7.8%|
|Marcus Pierce Jr.||TENN||11||11||24||11.7%||0||0.0%|
|Master Teague III||OSU||10||10||39||25.2%||0||1.3%|
There are two clear options for running back from the table, and the name of the game is "Robinson". Bijan Robinson ($11,200) and Brian Robinson Jr. ($8,800) both had at least 10 more opportunities than the next highest back, and both are tremendously talented backs in great game environments. Coming off a rib injury, Alabama's Robinson Jr. saw 36 carries (and scored four times) against Ole Miss. The backfield could be primarily his for good now, as Jase McClellan, unfortunately, suffered a season-ending knee injury. Bijan Robinson has had the backfield to himself, but it was nice to see his carry total balloon in Week 5. He is the perfect stacking partner for Rattler if assuming a positive game script for Texas.
Kyren Williams ($8,500) does not pop off this chart, but Notre Dame faced an exclusively negative game script against Cincinnati. The most encouraging news for Williams is that his 58.3% rush share is growing, but his passing-game work is, too. Chris Tyree ($5,600) was limited to just five carries and two targets, and Williams himself saw three targets in addition to the bulk of the rushing work (16 carries). The backfield is trending toward Williams, and he now gets a Virginia Tech defense that struggled against West Virginia's star running back Leddie Brown. Brown averaged 8.5 yards per rush and scored in the 27-21 win in Week 3.
A running back that might see some buzz is Zach Evans ($10,000), but I have my concerns. Evans may see an uptick in scoring chances in a game with a 61.5-point total. Texas Christian is just a 1.5-point road favorite against Texas Tech, and numberFire's model actually prefers Texas Tech to win. Texas Tech limited Leddie Brown to just 57 yards rushing last week, Bijan Robinson did not score against them, and Texas Tech is actually 57th overall against the run in terms of yards per game. Passing is the path of least resistance against the Red Raiders, so while Evans may have more chances to score, he may also not be in the best matchup to pile up yards.
|Billy Kemp IV||UVA||11||26.8%||30.2%||44||19.6%||17.6%|
|John Samuel Shenker||AUB||8||18.2%||35.2%||23||14.0%||19.7%|
|Velus Jones Jr.||TENN||8||42.1%||35.1%||22||16.5%||21.7%|
|Brian Thomas Jr.||LSU||6||14.3%||9.8%||15||8.5%||9.5%|
|Arland Bruce IV||IOWA||6||18.2%||15.2%||9||7.0%||5.1%|
|Dontay Demus Jr.||MD||5||14.3%||35.5%||36||19.8%||32.3%|
|Michael Woods II||OU||5||20.0%||12.9%||25||14.9%||13.6%|
It is incredibly difficult to pass up Josh Downs ($10,000) even at his high salary. Downs leads all receivers on the slate in both target share (38.4%) and yards share (40.3%) for North Carolina, and there comes the added bonus of stacking him with Sam Howell ($11,200) as a persistent dual threat. Florida State, despite far from a daunting passing schedule, is 97th in total passing defense, and despite the fact UNC is a 17.5-point favorite, the market share for Downs gives reasonable assurance he would be involved in much of the pre-blowout damage.
Another reason that KJ Jefferson is interesting is the clear stacking partner that Treylon Burks ($7,900) makes with him. Last week against Georgia was brutal as expected, but Burks still saw 6 of the team's 15 total targets. Burks still has a tremendous 37.1% target share and 39.5% yardage share overall. Especially considering his matchup with Ole Miss, Burks' salary dropped way too far, as he posted 167 yards receiving two weeks ago against Texas A&M's much stronger defense. Overall, he is the top value at receiver on the main slate.
Brennan Armstrong ($11,000) has been a dual-threat delight all season, but it appears there is finally a stacking partner for him. Billy Kemp IV ($7,700) has now seen at least 10 targets and an 18.0% target share in three straight games after seeing just 12 targets in each of the first two games of Virginia's season. This is a slight opportunity to buy that workload low in a good offense, as Kemp IV hasn't scored in either of the past two games. Virginia is sure to put up points (again) this week against Louisville; their game has a 69.5-point total, but the Cardinals are favored by 2.5 points.