College Football Betting Guide: Friday 10/8/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Cincinnati -29.5: 5 Stars out of 5
Temple is off to a 3-2 start this season, including a 2-2 record against FBS opponents. The Owls were blown out by Rutgers 61-14 in week one and they were easily defeated by Boston College 28-3 but they have won 3 games against Akron, Wagner (FCS) and Memphis last week.
Cincinnati will provide a new challenge for Temple as the Bearcats rank 5th in the entire nation in the latest AP Poll. Cincinnati has beaten two Power 5 programs already, beating Indiana by 2 touchdowns and beating #9 Notre Dame by 11 on the road last week. They also beat Miami (OH) and Murray State (FCS) by 35 points each in the first two weeks of the season.
Our model likes Cincinnati to win very easily and we project a final score of 42.76-7.74. Overall, we give the Bearcats a 71.83% chance to cover the spread, making this a 5-star bet.
Under 60.5: 3 Stars out of 5
Charlotte is having an inconsistent season so far, as they are 3-2 through their first 5 games. Charlotte is averaging 26.8 points per game and they are conceding 24.2 points per game. They played a high scoring 42-39 game against Middle Tennessee State but their 4 games have all been under the 60.5 point game total, which is the line for Friday’s contest.
Florida International has had 3 of their 5 games finish under the 60.5 point game total, although their defense has let them down at times this season. The Panthers gave up 54 and 58 points against Texas Tech and Florida Atlantic but Charlotte’s offense does not seem prone to this type of outburst.
Our model likes FIU to eek out a win, with a projected final score of 27.43-26.58. We give the under a 65.36% likelihood, making it a 3-star bet for Friday.
Arizona State -11.5: 1 Star out of 5
Stanford is having a good year with wins over Southern California, Vanderbilt and Oregon, but they have also lost to Kansas State and UCLA. On the other side, Arizona State has dominated 4 of their 5 games so far, with wins by 19 or more against UCLA, Colorado, Nevada-Las Vegas and Southern Utah (FCS). The only blemish for the Sun Devils so far this season was a 27-17 loss on the road against a Brigham Young team that is currently undefeated and ranked 10th in the nation.
Our model likes Arizona State to win and cover and we project a 58.7% likelihood for them to do so. We project a final score of 31.98-16.82 in favor of the Sun Devils.