College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 9/21/19 Main Slate
With three weeks of the season behind us, we have an idea of what we're getting into in college football DFS. And this week's slate requires a lot of attention with 16 games of action-packed goodness.
As for the basics, your roster consists of a quarterback slot, two running back slots, three wide receiver slots (which also includes tight ends) and one super flex slot. In the flex, you can insert one player from any position, including quarterbacks.
Here, our goal is to help you field a roster full of fantasy goodness, and in true numberFire fashion, we'll use our in-house projections as well as betting totals and advanced statistics to tackle as many slates as possible in the lead-up to the College Football Playoff. Today, we are looking at Saturday's main slate which locks at 12:00 p.m. EST.
Let's breakdown which players are in great spots as well as identify some players with cheap price tags that will allow you to roster the high dollar players.
Sam Ehlinger, Texas ($10,600) - Ehlinger is the highest-priced player on the board and rightfully so. His Texas Longhorns are 6.5-point home favorites against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a game with a 72.5 over/under, giving them the third-highest implied total at 39.5 points. The visiting Cowboys own a high-flying offense, but their defensive unit is just 61st in Bill Connelly's latest SP+ rankings. They have given up 225.3 passing yards and 2.0 scores on 36.3 pass attempts to date, and against the only high-level offense they've faced they allowed 281 and four passing scores to the Oregon State Beavers. Ehlinger is averaging 33.9 FanDuel points through three, so he should only build on that in this type of high-scoring environment.
Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State ($9,500) - Staying in Austin, the Cowboys will have to keep up with the Longhorns because of that porous defense. That, combined with the short spread and OK-State's 33-point total, makes Sanders a great tournament pivot opposite Ehlinger. The redshirt freshman is completing 67.2% of his passes en route to 622 yards, seven touchdowns and 11.2 adjusted yards per attempt. He's also added 219 yards and a touchdown on the ground. And it just so happens this Texas defense is further down than that of Oklahoma State, ranking 71st in defensive SP+. Either way, you can't go wrong with either -- if not both quarterbacks -- quarterback in this matchup.
James Blackman, Florida State ($8,500) - If you are looking to pay down from the passing studs, or if you're in need of a good flex option, Blackman is the guy. The Florida State signal caller is averaging a hair under 22.9 FanDuel points per game on the back of a 68.2% completion percentage and nine touchdowns. The matchup with Louisville doesn't look all that great on the surface, but the 'Noles still possess a 33.75 total as home favorites. Plus, the Cardinals just allowed Western Kentucky to throw for 245 yards and three touchdowns a week ago. They are vulnerable against an FSU offense looking to remain on track in Week 4.
Kylin Hill, Mississippi State ($9,400) - At home? Check. Favored? Check. Facing a bad rushing defense? Yeah, check -- all systems are go on the Mississippi State back this week. And though Hill is only sixth in pricing, he could end up as the day's top rushing performer. His Bulldogs are six-point favorites against Kentucky, whose defense ranks 73rd in the country due in large part to a shoddy performance against the ground game. Book-ending a good game against Eastern Michigan, the Wildcats gave up 181 yards and three touchdowns to Toledo, and then another 138 and three to Florida. With Mississippi State looking at roughly four touchdowns, it would be a shock if they didn't have a pair of rushing scores with Hill leading the attack.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU ($8,700) - Remaining in the SEC, we shift our attention to LSU and their offensive as they visit Vanderbilt this week. The Tigers enter as massive favorites (-24.0) and carry the second-highest total on this packed slate. Of course, that bodes well for quarterback Joe Burrow, but don't be caught sleeping on Edwards-Helaire. The shifty little back is very difficult to take down, which spells trouble for the Vandy defense. Before hosting LSU, they rank 84th in defensive SP+, and their 6.3 adjusted yards allowed per rush attempt are the worst on the slate by a wide margin. It could be a big, big day for CEH.
Salvon Ahmed, Washington ($8,600) - Ahmed is making a habit of being a good fantasy option at the running back position. He found himself here last week, and with a price drop of $400 there is little reason to stay away here. Through three weeks of action, the junior has 44 attempts for 246 yards and 4 touchdowns. He has conceded a number of reps to Richard Newton and others, but Ahmed has been super-productive throughout his career, and the opposing defense couldn't get juicier. BYU has been stout against the pass, but they have been hit up for an average of 225 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush attempt. On two occasions, they have surrendered 240-plus rushing yards. The Huskies are in line for 28.75 points, making Ahmed a high-upside play at under $9K.
Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State ($9,700) - Wash, rinse, repeat. Last week, Wallace made the cut for this piece as an elite wideout play -- and this week is no different. Actually, he's an even better play this time around at a $100 discount. After going for five catches, 118 yards and a touchdown against Tulsa, he now has 15 catches, 390 yards and 6 touchdowns this season. Last year against Texas, he had 10 for 222 and two scores, and that was a more experienced secondary than this year's version. You should have no fear in stacking Sanders and Wallace in any and all lineups.
Brennan Eagles, Texas ($8,300) - There are a trio of options for Texas, and while Collin Johnson has had his bumps and bruises, he's expected to be in there. Nevertheless, Eagles is a good pay-down play to pair with Ehlinger at the top. He costs nearly $1,000 less than Devin Duvernay, and he has a great opportunity to score after being shutout last week. The 6'4" wideout is averaging 22.6 yards per catch with three touchdowns to his credit already. Eagles is a great way to round out an all-out game stack, too.
Jacob Breeland, Oregon ($7,000) - In this same Pac-12 clash, it's easy to look to the other side in Stanford tight end Colby Parkinson. Parkinson has been one of the most consistent catching tight ends in all the land, but Breeland is having his own great start to 2019. The senior has hauled in at least four passes in each game, totaling 13 catches for 187 yards and 3 scores. He is a big-time threat in the red zone, which is where Oregon should spend a good chunk of their time on Saturday. The Ducks are double-digit favorites in Autzen Stadium.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BrettOswalt. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.