3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 3/24/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Kristaps Porzingis Over 36.5 Points + Assists (-108)
Kristaps Porzingis has a dream matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, and he gets to face them with both Kyle Kuzma and Bradley Beal on the sidelines.
In tonight's floor condition, Porzingis boasts a massive 39.4% usage rate, per CourtIQ. No one else on the Washington Wizards owns a usage rate north of 23.8% in the split. In addition to the gaudy usage, Porzingis produces 33.2 points and 10.1 rebounds per 36 minutes in the split.
So, yeah, it's going to be the Porzingis show tonight, and he could go nuts in this cakewalk matchup.
San Antonio is 21st in defensive rating over the last 10 games and is playing at the 4th-fastest pace in that time. Across the past 15 games, the Spurs are giving up the fifth-most points (26.6) and the most rebounds (12.0) to power forwards.
All that leads me to this over.
We project Porzingis to play 34.1 minutes and put up 27.5 points and 9.4 boards -- a total of 36.9 points plus rebounds. That barely clears this line, but I'm higher on him than our numbers are.
Given our projections, I don't hate taking Porzingis to double-double at +165, but I prefer the points/rebounds total rather than relying on KP to get 10-plus rebounds.
Troy Brown Jr. Under 7.5 Points (-118)
Troy Brown Jr. has a stiff challenge in front of him tonight against Lu Dort and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Largely thanks to Dort's lights-out defense, OKC has limited the small forward position to the seventh-fewest points per game over the last 15 games (19.1).
Brown usually doesn't do much on offense anyway, averaging 7.3 points per night for the year and taking five or fewer shots in three of his previous five outings. He hasn't taken a free throw in four of those last five, so this will likely come down to whether or not Brown can hit from three.
I'm banking on him missing from the outside and am taking this under.
Domantas Sabonis to Record a Triple-Double (+230)
Tonight's Sacramento Kings-Phoenix Suns matchup could be a track meet. The total is 239.0 points, and the spread is 3.5.
The game environment is one of the big reasons I'm into Domantas Sabonis to triple-double, but that's not the only reason.
He'll see a softer Suns interior defense with Deandre Ayton out, and Sabonis has already flirted with a triple-double in two of his three games against Phoenix this season -- missing it by one board in one game and by three assists in another.
With Sabonis at -850 to get a double-double and -850 to get at least 10 rebounds, assists will likely be the biggest hurdle tonight. His assists prop is set at 7.5 with -146 juice on the over, and the Suns have permitted the 13th-most assists per game to centers over the past 30 games (4.1).
Sabonis has been on an assists tear of late, dishing out 10-plus dimes in six of his last nine games.
We project Sabonis for 8.0 assists, and in what should be a high-scoring clash, I'm intrigued by this +230 price on Sabonis to triple-double.