NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 3/1/23: Will the Knicks Keep Winning?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons
Over 221.5 (-110)
It's been loss after loss for the Detroit Pistons (five straight and three straight out of the All-Star break).
For the Chicago Bulls, they're 2-1 since the break but did lose last night to the Toronto Raptors.
The first two matchups between these teams yielded an average of 242.0 points, and neither of them were overtime matchups, and accounting for injuries in this matchup, we're seeing reasons to like another over.
The Bulls are around the league average in just about everything -- but especially relevant offensive and defensive rating for this game. The Pistons' defensive rating for this matchup is a woeful 121.1.
My model is projecting a total of 228.3.
Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks
New York Knicks Moneyline (-300)
New York Knicks -7.5 (-110)
In six games with a new core of Spencer Dinwiddie, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, and Dorian Finney-Smith, the Brooklyn Nets are only 1-5. Along with that record comes a -11.1 net rating (on the back of a subpar 110.5 offensive rating).
The Knicks are healthy entering this game and are in the midst of a six-game win streak. On Monday, February 13th, the Knicks beat the Nets 124-106 behind a 40-point, 5-assist game by Jalen Brunson.
Accounting for health and new rotations for each team, my model likes the Knicks to win this one with a 79.3% probability, besting their implied odds of 75.0% (given the -300 moneyline).
They're also expected to be 9.7-point favorites, surpassing the actual spread of 7.5.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
Over 218.5 (-110)
Both of the first two matchups of the season between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics went over (to be fair, both were overtime games, but this game still has a fairly tight spread, too).
What really points to the over is the offensive success of both sides. The Cavaliers' expected offensive rating for this game is 116.7, and for Boston, it's 118.0. Those are some of the best marks in the entire NBA.
Yes, both defenses are solid; however, the pace and offenses cancel things out well enough. My model, using relevant samples for each side, is projecting a total of 222.9.
numberFire's model likes the over as a one-star play, as well.
