3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 2/15/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Cameron Johnson Over 1.5 Made Threes (-188)
The -188 price isn't fun, but Cameron Johnson has a great chance to hit multiple triples tonight.
Johnson is playing the Miami Heat. Miami gives up a ton of three-point shots, permitting a three-point attempt rate of 42.8% over the past 15 games, a league-high mark in that time.
In two games with the Brooklyn Nets, Johnson has taken 14 total threes, hitting two in each game. Going back to his last two outings as a member of the Phoenix Suns, Johnson has hit at least two three-pointers in four straight contests.
Our model projects him to make 3.0 threes on 7.0 tries on Monday. Even if this line moves to 2.5 later in the day, I'd still be in favor of betting on the over.
Jabari Smith Over 1.5 Made Threes (-118)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are another team that surrenders plenty of three-point attempts, and that has me on the over on Jabari Smith's three-point prop.
OKC has given up a 40.1% three-point attempt rate over the last 15 games, which is the seventh-highest clip in that span. Two games ago, Smith played a Miami defense that cedes a lot of threes -- as we just talked about -- and he fired off nine shots from beyond the arc.
Smith has been in a funk shooting-wise, draining multiple threes only twice over his past 12 games. He's made just 21.7% of his three-point tries during that 12-game run. While Smith isn't a great long-range shooter, his season-long three-point percentage was 31.7% prior to the past 12 games, so he's due for some positive regression.
We project Smith to go 2.0 of 6.6 from three today.
James Harden Under 20.5 Points (-112)
James Harden has a brutal matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Cavs rank first in defensive rating and play at the league's slowest pace. It gets worse. Cleveland is also giving up the third-fewest points per night to the point-guard position (22.4) as well as the third-fewest three-point attempts per game (7.2).
Obviously, Harden is capable of lighting up any defense if he's on, but this is undeniably a difficult spot for him.
This game has a 216.0-point total, the second-lowest of the night, and our algorithm projects Harden for just 18.8 points.