NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 2/15/23: Focusing on 3 Totals
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers
Over 216.5 (-110)
Despite another night with a lot of games (10 of them, that is), some of them (four) have spreads of at least 7.0 points, and most of them (five or six, depending on your view) have pretty crucial questionable tags on players who impact what makes for the best bet.
There are some spots where we can look at the totals, though.
One is in the early marquee game of the night, which is on ESPN, between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Philadelphia 76ers.
The total is 216.5 points, and in the first matchup between these two teams back in late November, Cleveland won 113-85 at home. That's a total of just 198 points. Both James Harden and Tyrese Maxey were inactive for the Sixers there, and they had an effective field goal percentage of 45.5% (with the Cavaliers at 70.9%).
What I'm getting at is that we can't take away too much from that matchup.
If I use current healthy rotations for each side, my model has the total at 221.3, giving us plenty of room on the over. Both teams have offenses that are better than the league average, and while both squads are strong defensively, it's not really enough to expect a repeat performance of that first matchup.
Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets
Over 217.0 (-110)
In two games as a new-look team, the Brooklyn Nets are 0-2 but have put forth a solid offensive rating on relevant possessions of 114.8. As importantly, they've allowed a defensive rating of 125.6.
The Miami Heat have notable injuries here: Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry are out, among others. That seems to be playing part in a lower posted total, yet the team's splits with their current rotation are still over-friendly at this number. The Heat's relevant offensive rating for tonight is 117.2 -- with a 107.0 defensive rating.
There isn't as much room between my model's expectation (219.3) and the total (217.0) as there is in the Cavs-Sixers game, yet it's still bettable.
Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies
Under 239.0 (-110)
I can't go with three overs -- I'm not that much of an optimist.
One of the higher totals of the night is found in Memphis for the matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Utah Jazz.
The Jazz have a roster that is still rounding into form after the trade deadline. The Grizzlies will be without Steven Adams.
Overall this year, the Grizzlies have failed to live up to offensive expectations on a per-game basis. They've surpassed their implied team total in just 43.6% of their games (falling short by an average of 3.6 points).
Adjusting this game for health, my model thinks it scores around 235.8 points rather than 239.0.