College Basketball Betting Guide: Wednesday 2/15/23
College basketball is one of the more entertaining sports to bet on due to the sheer volume of games that take place each day. The season is heating up as conference play winds down, and this is a great time to hone your betting prowess before March Madness.
Using our projections as a guide, which bets should you make via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Tarleton State at Stephen F. Austin
Over 137.5 (-110)
Our model sees value in the total for this in-state clash between Tarleton State and Stephen F. Austin.
Both sides have been over-friendly teams in recent weeks. The over has hit in four of Tarleton State's last six games while the over has won out in six of the Lumberjacks' past nine affairs.
Stephen F. Austin sits 89th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom, and this total is lower than what we usually see for their games. The over/under has been at least 139.0 in seven of the Lumberjacks' last eight outings, and the average posted total for their games in that span is 145.1.
Neither of these defenses is all that good, with both ranking outside the top 100 by KenPom's numbers.
Our projections have this game totaling 144.9 points, and we give the over a 65.7% chance to cash. Barttorvik has the total at 141.0 points.
The big money is on our side, too. While just 52% of tickets are on the over, 89% of the money is. The over is the side to be on.
Florida Gulf Coast at Stetson
Stetson Moneylne (-125)
This is a matchup between two teams that are positioned right next to each other in our nERD-based rankings, but there are reasons to be bullish about Stetson's chances to win.
While we rate Stetson and Florida Gulf Coast 165th and 166th, respectively, Barttorvik and KenPom are more in favor of the Hatters. Barttorvik ranks Stetson 175th and the Eagles 210th. KenPom has the Hatters 164th and Florida Gulf Coast 176th.
Stetson is pretty awful defensively, ranking 312th in adjusted D, per Barttorvik, but an FGCU offense that slots in 181st may not be able to take advantage. On the flip side, Stetson's 53rd-ranked offense should have plenty of success against the Eagles' 234th-ranked defense.
On top of that, Stetson is 7-1 at home this season, with the only defeat coming in overtime versus a Kennesaw State team that Barttorvik ranks 128th -- in other words, a team that's better than Florida Gulf Coast.
The -125 moneyline implies win odds of 55.6%. Both our numbers and Barttorvik's see that as selling Stetson short. We give the Hatters a 64.8% chance to win while Barttorvik has their win odds at 71.0%.
Indiana at Northwestern
Northwestern +2.5 (-110)
Northwestern Moneyline (+122)
Northwestern picked up a huge résumé win last weekend with a victory over then-No. 1 Purdue. I like them to boost their NCAA Tournament chances again tonight versus Indiana. With the Wildcats a slim home underdog to the Hoosiers, we can take Northwestern to either cover or win outright. Both look like solid plays.
The Wildcats have been an excellent against-the-spread (ATS) bet of late, going 6-2 ATS over their past eight. They've covered in three of their last four home games.
Indiana has also been good ATS, posting a 7-3 ATS clip over their last 10 games, but the Hoosiers have been only 2-3 ATS on the road in that time.
Betting on Northwestern to cover checks out. Our model projects them to do so 65.1% of the time. It's the slightly safer route to take.
However, I'm all for taking Northwestern to win, which is exactly what they did at IU earlier this year by a score of 84-83. Our projections have this being a 70.4-67.6 win for the 'Cats, and we think Northwestern comes out on top 61.1% of the time. Barttorvik has them winning 69-68 with win odds of 55%.
There's some value with the total, too. It's set at 134.5 points with a -110 price on each side. Both our numbers and Barttorvik's see the over hitting. We give it a 59.3% chance to win out.