NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 2/14/23: Looking for Value on Valentine's Day

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?

(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

Under 225.5 (-110)

The Boston Celtics' injury report for this game is long.

They're listing Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart as out, Jayson Tatum as doubtful, and Grant Williams and Robert Williams as questionable. That's a pretty impactful list if I'm going to undersell it.

With Tatum, Brown, and Smart off the floor, the Celtics are actually still a good team -- over a limited number of non-garbage possessions (200) with all three off the floor.

As for the Milwaukee Bucks, they have Giannis Antetokounmpo as probable, and that's the real key here. The spread is about right, and the moneyline is pretty heavy at -375.

For that reason, I'm looking at the under. The Bucks have a great defense, and Boston's defense rates out well in this sample. My model is projecting a total of around 221.0.

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors

Over 221.5 (-110)

The Orlando Magic picked up a 100-91 road win against the Chicago Bulls last night and now travel to play the Toronto Raptors, a team that is 17-13 at home.

Once again, it's not the spread or moneyline that jumps out but rather the total. This time, I'm seeing value on the over.

Using relevant splits for each team, my model is projecting a total of 227.2. Neither team has a particularly good defense, and the offenses are around league average.

Team games on a back-to-back have a 52.7% over rate this season, so the fatigue factor might be a bit overstated.