3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 2/13/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Luka Doncic Under 2.5 Made Threes (+110)
It's always scary to take the under on anything with Luka Doncic, but this is a plus-money prop that makes some sense.
Doncic is up against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and Minnesota is doing a great job preventing three-point tries of late. Over the last 15 games, the T-Wolves are giving up a three-point attempt rate of 33.6%, the second-lowest clip in the league.
Luka has made exactly two triples in each of his past two games, and while the sample size is really small, he's seen a drop in usage when sharing the court with Kyrie Irving -- as you'd expect. With those two on the floor (29.9-minute sample), Doncic sports a usage rate of 28.4% -- down 2.9 percentage points from his usual mark -- and is nailing just 2.4 threes per 36 minutes, per CourtIQ.
Our model projects Doncic to hit 2.8 threes on 8.5 attempts. With an appealing +110 price on the under, it's worth a shot.
Paolo Banchero Under 7.5 Rebounds (-132)
Paolo Banchero has been a monster on the glass of late, snagging at least eight boards in seven consecutive games. That sounds like a good reason to back the over, right?
This recent rebounding tear doesn't paint an accurate picture of the rookie's rebounding prowess this season. Banchero is averaging 6.8 rebounds per night for the year. Prior to the last seven games, he'd gone eight outings in a row with seven or fewer rebounds, getting six or fewer in seven of those games.
His matchup with the Chicago Bulls is a tough one rebounding-wise. Chicago has the sixth-best rebound rate across the past 10 games, and Banchero posted seven boards against the Bulls not that long ago (January 28th).
We project Banchero for 6.6 rebounds on Monday.
Bradley Beal Under 23.5 Points (-106)
While Bradley Beal has dropped 32 and 34 points in two of his past three games, I love the under tonight on his points prop.
Beal has been under 23.5 points in 10 of his past 12 contests, with the two aforementioned red-hot nights being the only exceptions. He's scoring 22.5 points per game for the year.
The Golden State Warriors -- Beal's Monday opponent -- are 11th in defensive rating over the last 15 games, and for the season, Golden State is surrendering the eighth-fewest three-point shots per game to shooting guards (8.4).
Going by our numbers, there's a nice gap between this line and what we project. Our algorithm has Beal netting 21.1 points, 2.4 shy of this line.