3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 2/3/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jaden Ivey Over 4.5 Assists (-152)
Of course, the lines are set with this in mind, but I think there's still some value on Jaden Ivey's assist prop.
Ivey has at least five assists in six of his past eight games, and one of the exceptions came last time out, when Ivey logged just 21 minutes due to foul trouble. The rookie's shift to a point-guard role has given his assist totals a boost. He's averaging a robust 6.3 dimes per night in that eight-game span.
I'm not sure the market has fully adjusted for Ivey's new role, and this matchup only helps matters.
We project Ivey to record 5.3 assists on Friday.
De'Andre Hunter Under 1.5 Made Threes (-115)
The Atlanta Hawks-Utah Jazz clash is expected to be another close, high-scoring matchup as the total is 242.0 and the spread sits at 1.0. But I think the market has overcorrected a bit on this line as a result of the game environment.
The Jazz have been excellent all year at preventing three-point tries. Their three-point attempt rate allowed of 35.1% is tied for a league-low mark. Utah is giving up just 6.8 three-point shots per game to small forwards, the second-fewest.
De'Andre Hunter isn't a high-volume shooter as is. He's taken just six total three-balls over the last two games, and he's hit one or fewer threes in four of his past seven outings.
Our model projects him right at this line -- 1.6 makes on 4.4 attempts -- and the under is the side I'll be on.
Pascal Siakam Over 6.5 Rebounds (-132)
Our model differs fairly significantly from this line. We have Pascal Siakam projected for 8.2 rebounds tonight versus the Houston Rockets. It's rare for the gap between any prop line and our projections to be this big.
The matchup versus Houston is probably why the line is set where it is. The Rockets are first in rebound rate and have conceded just 13.1 boards per night to centers, the third-fewest.
But Houston (16th in pace) is a sizable pace-up spot for the Toronto Raptors (26th), and Siakam has pulled down at least seven rebounds in 11 of his past 13 games. He's also played a ton of minutes lately -- at least 38 in four straight.
For the year, Siakam is averaging 8.0 rebounds per game.
Give me the over.