NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 2/2/23: A Marquee Matchup in Milwaukee
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Miami Heat at New York Knicks
New York Knicks +2.0 (-110)
New York Knicks Moneyline (+106)
The Miami Heat are a little light on depth tonight, and the Knicks are without Mitchell Robinson again.
New York, with Robinson off the floor but with Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson active, has a -2.1 net rating. Miami's relevant net rating -- accounting for health here -- is only +0.9. That's not enough to take the points with the visiting Heat and instead puts value on the Knicks at home.
numberFire's model likes the Knicks +2.0 as a four-star play out of five. My model is a lot tighter with it but still thinks the spread should be Knicks -0.8. I'll gladly take the points and be fine with it, but the moneyline is also viable for those seeking better odds.
Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls Moneyline (-230)
Under 236.5 (-110)
The model at numberFire gives the Bulls an 82.0% chance to win this matchup, thus making their moneyline (-230; 69.7% implied odds) a five-star play. My model has the Chicago win probability at 75.2%, so that's a big gap but still enough to like the Bulls' moneyline.
The Charlotte Hornets are a pretty weak team even with LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Gordon Hayward active. In those games, they're only 4-7 with a -3.5 point differential but a -5.9 adjusted point differential. Those games are also 9-2-0 in favor of the under.
As for the Bulls, at home, they're going over at only a 41.7% rate across 24 games, but they also have a +2.9 adjusted net rating.
Los Angeles Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline (-176)
The Bucks are still ramping up the minutes for Khris Middleton, but they're finding ways to win with him limited. They're 5-0 over the past five games with him back in the lineup despite the fact that he hasn't played more than 20 minutes in any of those matchups.
As for the Los Angeles Clippers, in games with both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, they're 15-7 overall with a 59.1% cover rate but hold a 9-5 road record in spite of a slight +1.9 point differential. Accounting for opponent strength, that point differential is -0.4, and their adjusted net rating in this road sample is -1.0. So the raw results are a bit misleading.
The spread itself is pretty efficient, so the best angle here is the Bucks' moneyline.