3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 2/2/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Terry Rozier Over 2.5 Made Threes (-125)
This is a great spot for Terry Rozier to have a big day from three.
Rozier is up against the Chicago Bulls, and the Bulls allow a lot of three-point tries. For the year, Chicago is giving up a three-point attempt rate of 41.7%, tied for the fifth-highest. They're permitting the eighth-most three-point attempts per night to shooting guards (9.3).
Rozier is letting them fly from deep. He's jacked up at least eight three-balls in eight straight games. He just played Chicago on January 26th and went 4 of 8 from three.
Our model has Rozier going 3.2 of 8.9 from three today.
I don't mind the over on LaMelo Ball's three-point prop, either. It's set at 3.5 with a -138 price on the over. We project him to make 3.8 threes on 9.8 tries.
Jonas Valanciunas Under 14.5 Points (-114)
Jonas Valanciunas draws a tough matchup tonight against the Dallas Mavericks, and it has me on the under on his points prop.
Dallas is limiting the center position to 19.6 points per night, the third-fewest. Centers are taking only 13.0 shots per night against Dallas, the second-fewest.
On top of that, the Mavs (29th in pace) are a big pace-down matchup for the New Orleans Pelicans (14th).
Valanciunas has been held to 14 or fewer points in four of his previous six games. The return of Brandon Ingram is a blow to JV's scoring output as Valanciunas is scoring 1.93 fewer points per 36 minutes with Ingram and C.J. McCollum on the court this season, per CourtIQ. His usage rate drops 2.5 percentage points in the split.
Our model has Valanciunas netting 14.0 points on Thursday night.
Paul George Under 2.5 Made Threes (+124)
The Los Angeles Clippers are on the road at the Milwaukee Bucks, and it should be a fun one.
Milwaukee has been excellent defensively this year, sitting third in defensive rating, and they're really good at limiting three-point shots. For the year, the Bucks have given up a three-point attempt rate of 36.3%, the sixth-fewest. They're allowing just 6.9 three-point attempts per game to small forwards, the third-fewest.
Paul George has hit more than three trifectas in just five of his last eight games. We have him hitting 2.7 of 7.2 from three tonight. I think the under has a better chance to hit than this +124 price implies. It's worth a roll of the dice.