3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 2/1/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
James Harden Over 9.5 Assists (-150)
James Harden should have a big night tonight against the Orlando Magic, and I like the over on his assists prop.
The Philadelphia 76ers boast a juicy implied total of 120.0 points, and the Magic sit 22nd in defensive rating. Orlando is surrendering the fifth-most assists per night to the point guard position (9.4), and Harden ranks third in the NBA in potential assists per game over the last 15 games (17.8)
Blowout risk is a worry as the Sixers are 9.5-point home favorites, although Orlando just won by 10 in this same matchup on Monday.
We project Harden for 10.7 assists, and I don't hate Harden to record a triple-double, which is +700.
Derrick White Under 11.5 Points (-112)
Derrick White has a home date with the Brooklyn Nets, and it's a tough matchup for him.
The Nets are a solid 11th in defensive rating, and they've stifled point guards this year, limiting them to 23.3 points per game, the fourth-fewest. The Nets (21st in pace) are also a slight pace-down spot for the Boston Celtics (17th).
White is averaging 10.3 points per game on the season. He's gone over this line in three straight, but before that run, he'd scored 11 or fewer points in 9 of 11 games. He's got just an 18.1% usage rate this year with Marcus Smart off the floor, per LineupIQ.
Our model has White scoring 10.8 points on Wednesday, and the under is the side I'll be on.
Dejounte Murray Under 1.5 Made Threes (+120)
This is a plus-money prop I can get behind.
Dejounte Murray has really ramped up his three-point usage since coming to the Atlanta Hawks. He's taking 5.6 treys per game and owns a 30.5% three-point attempt rate -- both of which are career-high marks my a good distance.
But I like his chances of going under on this prop today a lot better than the +120 price indicates.
Murray has made one or fewer threes in half of his past six games, and his matchup with the Phoenix Suns isn't a friendly one for three-pointers. The Suns are giving up the fifth-lowest three-point attempt rate (36.2%), and they're allowing only 8.1 three-point attempts per game to shooting guards, the sixth-fewest.
We project Murray right at this line, forecasting him to make 1.6 threes on 4.8 tries. If this prop was priced evenly, I'd stay away, but with the under at +120 and the over at -154, the under is worth a roll of the dice.