NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 2/1/23: 3 Over/Unders to Bet
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets
Under 232.5 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline (-210)
The Thunder are traveling to play the Houston Rockets for the second time this season. In their first matchup, the Rockets won 118-105. In that matchup, the Thunder shot an uncharacteristically low 44.3% effective field goal percentage while the Rockets were red hot (62.8%).
By this time around, the Rockets are squarely in the hunt for the most ping pong balls in the draft lottery. The Thunder have a 43.2% chance to make the playoffs, per our algorithm.
In this matchup, the Rockets are without both Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr.. The Thunder are missing some depth pieces, too, but rate out as the much better squad.
numberFire's model gives the Thunder a hefty 76.9% win probability. My model has it closer than that, but we are also seeing 67% of the spread bets and 78% of the spread money on OKC here.
While I can't argue with a moneyline that checks all the boxes, my preferred angle is the under.
The Thunder have suppressed opponents while on the road. Home teams facing Oklahoma City have gone over their implied team total in just 5 of 24 games.
Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs
Over 244.0 (-110)
This game should see a lot of points.
The first two games in this series totaled 242 and 251 points. Though the actual over/under reflects that, the relevant samples based on health are pointing to an over.
The San Antonio Spurs are setting up with a relevant offensive rating of 116.6 and a defensive rating of 124.4 once accounting for injuries -- both very over-friendly numbers. The same can be said for the Sacramento Kings (120.0 and 117.3, respectively).
Games in San Antonio this season have a 57.1% over rate, spurred on by better offense from the Spurs themselves: they have gone over their own implied team total in 53.6% of their home games and have done so by an average of 3.0 points.
Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz Moneyline (-148)
Over 230.5 (-110)
Without OG Anunoby, the Toronto Raptors are not quite the same squad.
They're 2-5 outright in games without Anunoby but with Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Scottie Barnes -- as well as 2-5 against the spread.
Their opponent-adjusted point differential slips to -1.7 in this split from +2.0 out of the split.
Notably, Raptors games have averaged 231.0 points in the split and 224.2 out of the split, as well.
As for the Jazz, they're pretty healthy and are a strong home team (17-9 overall with an adjusted net rating of +6.0).
numberFire's model likes the Jazz moneyline (-148) and the over (230.5) as two-star plays out of five.