3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 1/12/23
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 28.5 Points (-110)
The Sixers have been brutally tough against point guards when it comes to scoring, limiting the position to a league-low 20.5 points per game. SGA faced Philadelphia on New Year's Eve and struggled mightily, netting only 14 points in 32 minutes and shooting 4 for 15 from the field.
On top of that, Philly is fourth in defensive rating, and they are a huge pace-down spot for OKC. The 76ers are 25th in pace while the Thunder sit 4th.
There's also some blowout risk in this one as the Sixers are 9.5-point favorites.
While SGA can go off in any matchup, there are a lot of things pointing to him not having a huge scoring night. Our model projects him for 27.4 points, and the under is the side I'll be on.
Pat Connaughton Over 2.5 Made Threes (+122)
Pat Connaughton has been letting it fly from deep, hoisting at least six treys in six of his past seven games. He's taken 17 threes over the last two games.
That's a good place to start for this over.
The matchup with the Miami Heat helps quite a bit, too. Miami has surrendered a 42.6% three-point attempt rate, the third-highest, including a league-high 9.7 three-point tried per night to small forwards. Connaughton should be able to find plenty of chances to shoot the three-ball.
Lastly, Giannis Antetokounmpo is out for the Milwaukee Bucks, which obviously shakes up the Bucks' usage. With Giannis and Khris Middleton -- who is also out -- off the floor this season, Connaughton owns a 15.4% usage rate and hits 2.70 treys per 36 minutes, according to RotoGrinders' CourtIQ.
The minutes should be there tonight -- we peg him to get 33 minutes -- and we have him draining 2.5 triples on 6.7 attempts. That's right at this line, and if the pricing was more 50/50, I'd stay away. But the over is +124, and the under is priced at -156.
I think the over is worth a roll of the dice at plus-money.
OG Anunoby Over 5.5 Rebounds (-130)
But there are reasons to back the over.
Prior to that three-rebound affair, Anunoby had snagged at least eight rebounds in three of his last four games. He also played just 31 minutes on Tuesday, his fewest over his past five games. He'd logged at least 39 minutes in three of the past four games before the last time out. The three-board game tied for his fewest rebounds in a game over his past 14 contests.
Charlotte isn't good on the glass. They're 19th in rebound rate (49.5%) and are giving up the 10th-most rebounds per night to power forwards (10.2).
For the season, Anunoby is pulling down an average of 5.9 rebounds per game and 5.7 boards per 36 minutes.
We project him to play 37 minutes and get 5.9 rebounds. I'm a little more bullish about the over than our model is.