3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 12/27/22
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Paolo Banchero Over 20.5 Points (-115)
Paolo Banchero is at home today against the Los Angeles Lakers, and there are several reasons to like the over on his points prop.
LA has had a tough time with small forwards this season, giving up the fifth-most points per game (23.7) to the position. The Lakers (2nd in pace) are a big pace-up spot for the Orlando Magic (22nd), too. This game boasts a 236.0-point total and 3.0-point spread, and LA is a much worse defense without Anthony Davis, ranking next to last in defensive rating over the past three games.
In short, a lot of boxes are checked Orlando's star rookie.
Banchero is averaging 21.7 points per night for the season, and he's scored slightly better at home (22.1) than he has on the road (21.3).
We project him right at his season-long average, pegging Banchero to net 21.7 points Tuesday.
De'Anthony Melton Under 2.5 Made Threes (-142)
The Washington Wizards aren't a great defensive squad, but they do a nice job limiting three-point tries. For the season, the Wiz are giving up a three-point attempt rate of 36.4%, tied for the fifth-lowest clip.
While De'Anthony Melton has made at least three triples in five of his last seven games, he isn't going to keep shooting this well. He's sunk a whopping 46.6% from three during that seven-game run. For the year, he's a 39.2% three-point shooter, and even that is likely due to regress a tad, as DARKO projects him to make 36.3% of his three-pointers.
Our model has Melton going just 2.0 for 5.8 from beyond the arc today.
Buddy Hield Under 3.5 Made Threes (-132)
The Indiana Pacers are on the second night of a back-to-back after playing Monday in New Orleans, and they're at home versus the Atlanta Hawks.
Atlanta has been fairly stout on defense -- 12th in defensive rating -- and they have held teams to a 36.4% three-point attempt rate, tied for the fifth-lowest mark.
Although Buddy Hield is capable of getting hot against anyone, this is a tough matchup for him, and for his career, he's made only 2.9 threes per night on the second leg of back-to-backs.
We project him to hit 3.2 of 9.2 three-point tries tonight.
