3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 11/29/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Reggie Jackson Over 14.5 Points (-125)
The Los Angeles Clippers are going to be without Kawhi Leonard, John Wall, Paul George and Luke Kennard. That opens up tons of usage, and Reggie Jackson should benefit versus the Portland Trail Blazers.
With those four off the floor this season, Jackson owns a 22.5% usage rate, per RotoGrinders' CourtIQ. That's up 2.0 percentage points from his season-long mark
Our model really likes Jackson tonight, projecting him to score 16.4 points. Even at -125 juice, the over looks like a smashing play.
You can also go after the over on Jackson's points, rebounds and assists total. We project him to rack up 16.4 points, 3.8 boards and 6.2 dimes -- 26.4 combined. His line is set at 24.5 (-128 on the over).
Josh Hart Over 7.5 Rebounds (+112)
With Dame off the floor this year, Hart has pulled down 8.2 boards per 36 minutes. If he can rebound at that rate today, he should cash this over.
The minutes will likely be there. We project him for 36.4 minutes tonight, and he's played at least 35.8 minutes in three of his previous four games, with outings of 40.0 and 41.5 in that span.
We have Hart pegged to snag 7.3 rebounds, so we're about dead even with this line. The pricing, however, is not even, with the over at +112 and the under at -142. Given that, the over is the side I want to roll the dice on.
Spencer Dinwiddie Under 2.5 Made Threes (-122)
Spencer Dinwiddie is making 41.2% of his threes this season, and he's drilled at least three triples in three of his past five games, including two straight.
But there are reasons to back this under tonight against the Golden State Warriors.
Dinwiddie's 41.2% three-point percentage is due for negative regression. He's a 32.9% shooter from three for his career, and he's a 32.6% three-point shooter over the past five seasons combined. DARKO has him as a projected 36.2% three-point shooter this season.
While the Dubs haven't done a good job limiting threes overall, they've given up just 18.3 three-point attempts per game to shooting guards, which is slightly better than the league average (13th-fewest).
Our model projects Dinwiddie for 1.9 made threes today on 5.2 attempts.