NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 11/29/22: Can Dallas Continue Dominating at Home?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Over 228.0 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks +2.0 (-112)
The Golden State Warriors have been about as bad on the road as possible. Their 2-9 record is tied to a -9.1 point differential, and when I adjust for opponents faced, that point differential is actually -10.0. They've covered just 18.2% of the time on the road and have underperformed the spread by an average of 11.0 points.
Dallas has taken advantage of home matchups. They're 8-3 at home but 1-7 on the road. Their opponent-adjusted point differential in Dallas is +7.1.
There's minimal injury news in this game, so we don't have to make too many tweaks.
With that in mind, the preferred action here is on the over. Using splits with the Warriors' Big Four all healthy and with Luka Doncic healthy, my model projects a total of 232.5 points.
It also views this game as a pick'em, so the 2.0 points with Dallas is nice, and I wouldn't fault anyone for just going with their moneyline (+104) at better odds.
Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers
Over 211.0 (-110)
Los Angeles Clippers +3.5 (-106)
While we didn't have many injuries in the Warriors/Mavericks game, we have a ton here.
Neither team has a positive net rating with those adjustments: LA's is -2.7, and Portland's is -4.7.
Yes, the Blazers have better health, but it's hard to view them as substantial favorites when they've been so bad without Lillard. Yes, they're 4-5 in games without Dame, but the net rating suggests a worse performance long-term -- around 2.8 wins out of those nine games rather than four.
The total is tumbling down here, which makes sense based on the trends. The Clippers have a 23.8% over rate with the Blazers at 42.1%. However, a weak Blazers defense should bump up the Clippers' efficiency enough for this one to get over 211.0.