3 NBA FanDuel Studs to Target on Thursday 11/10/22
Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down.
A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying up for someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, paying up and getting a dud is likely going to leave your lineup drawing pretty close to dead.
Which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today?
Joel Embiid, C, 76ers ($10,500)
There's no doubt that Joel Embiid is the best way to spend salary on this slate.
Embiid returned from an illness to 36 minutes on Monday in a tough matchup with Phoenix, and he crushed it, dropping 33 points and 10 rebounds. We should expect this type of return to his MVP-level production in the short run.
James Harden is still out for the 76ers, so Embiid is the clear top guy. His 35.8% usage rate with Harden off the floor is huge. He's largely underperformed, too. He's only posted 1.15 FanDuel points per minute with Harden off the floor this season, and that rate was 1.61 a year ago.
With a modest 221.5-point total in this contest against Atlanta, Embiid's crystal-clear role is unmatched on this small slate.
Jimmy Butler, SF/PF, Heat ($9,000)
There's a bit of an asterisk on this, but Jimmy Butler is a great play under one condition.
Tyler Herro, who missed the last game with an ankle injury, is questionable to play tonight against Charlotte. In the event he missed, Butler might even leap Embiid for the top play on the slate.
Jimmy Buckets is averaging a whopping 1.50 FanDuel points per minute this season on a team-best 27.9% usage rate during floor situations without Herro. Butler is averaging just 1.14 FanDuel points per minute on a 24.9% usage rate overall.
On this short slate, I wouldn't consider Butler "unusable" if Herro plays. He's busted 42 FanDuel points with Herro in the lineup three times this season. Plus, the Hornets are allowing the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing small forwards.
We'll watch the Miami injury report closely, but the prognosis for Jimmy is solid tonight.
Terry Rozier, SG/PG, Hornets ($8,000)
This piece is, of course, missing the leading FanDuel-point-per-game scorer this season on a short slate. What gives?
Well, Luka Doncic's salary gives. It's $12,500, and Doncic isn't a slam dunk at that mark. He hasn't posted over 62 FanDuel points since Tim Hardaway Jr. returned. Instead, I prefer Terry Rozier when spending up at guard today.
At first glance, that's lunacy. Rozier hasn't even passed 36 FanDuel points in three games returning from injury. However, he's woefully underutilized his team-best 29.4% usage rate in that time thanks to frigid 35.3% shooting.
Last year, Rozier averaged 19.85 points per 36 minutes with absent teammates LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, and Miles Bridges off the floor. After all, he did have 23 games last season where he scored at least 25 points in total.
The dude can fill it up with a supreme role to do so now. Given he stacks well with Butler and likely won't be on the radar in tournaments, we may have a hidden gem tonight with "Scary Terry."
