NBA Betting Guide for Monday 10/24/22: Can We Trust the Public and Back the Nuggets?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
Under 215.0 (-110) - 4 stars
These two teams just squared up over the weekend, a game that resulted in a 112-109 win for the Miami Heat at home. For tonight's game, our model is projecting a final score of just 104.3 to 101.0 in favor of the home Heat again.
Excluding garbage time situations, the Toronto Raptors have an offensive rating of 113.0, ranking them 12th in the NBA. Miami's offensive rating (110.6) ranks them 17th. So, both are basically average offenses.
Both are average defensively, too: Miami ranks 17th, and Toronto is 18th.
numberFire's model views this game as 67.4% likely to stay under 215.0 points.
Orlando Magic at New York Knicks
New York Knicks Moneyline (-300) - 3 stars
New York Knicks -7.5 (-110) - 2 stars
The algorithm at numberFire also loves the under for this game (222.5), but I'm finding it more obvious to talk about the Knicks' chance to win and cover.
In medium-to-very-high leverage situations this season (to account for the arrival of Jalen Brunson), the Knicks have a +15.9 net rating on the back of a 120.6 offensive rating and a 104.7 defensive rating.
The Orlando Magic are dealing with a laundry list of injuries of their own, and this season, in 100 minutes without Jalen Suggs, their net rating is -10.8. Either way you slice it, they're playing like a 25- or 26-win team and just don't seem to be in the same tier as the Knicks.
Even the 7.5-point spread shouldn't faze us. Despite a 54% spread bet rate for the Magic, we're seeing 60% of the spread money on the Knicks, indicating sharp action on New York to cover.
Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers
Denver Nuggets Moneyline (-170) - 4 stars
Under 227.0 (-110) - 4 stars
Denver Nuggets -4.5 (-110) - 2 stars
The public is very clearly into buying low on the Denver Nuggets. At FanDuel Sportsbook, 63% of the spread bets are on the Nuggets, and that comes with 71% of the spread money.
The Portland Trail Blazers are 3-0 thanks to wins of seven points over the Sacramento Kings, two points in overtime over the Phoenix Suns, and two points over the Los Angeles Lakers. That's a point differential of just +3.6 despite the flawless record, and NBAStuffer shows Portland as this season's biggest overperformer to start the year.
The Nuggets aren't without some issues, but the trends point to a win for them to kick off the week.